Nickel
NickelCRITICALbattery-metals
A silvery-white metal used primarily in stainless steel production, which accounts for roughly 70% of global nickel demand. Electric vehicle batteries represent the fastest-growing segment, requiring high-purity nickel for lithium-ion cathodes. Other applications include alloys for aerospace, marine equipment, and industrial machinery. Indonesia and the Philippines together produce about 60% of the world's nickel ore, while Russia supplies approximately 15%. Indonesia dominates nickel processing and has emerged as the largest refined nickel producer following major investments in smelting capacity. China processes significant volumes of imported ore from Southeast Asian suppliers. Supply disruptions stem from Indonesia's history of export restrictions, including ore bans implemented in 2014 and 2020 to boost domestic processing. Russia's position as a major refined nickel supplier creates sanctions-related supply risks. The concentration of mining operations in tropical, politically sensitive regions makes production vulnerable to weather events and regulatory changes.
Why this score? · top 3 of 397 events driving the 30-day risk
Top producers
Related industries
Passing chokepoints
AI Brief
Military escalation across Japan and Russia this week signals potential supply chain disruption for nickel, with both countries hosting critical processing infrastructure. Indonesia's continued production stability offers the only near-term buffer against refined nickel shortages.
Current status
Nickel markets face heightened geopolitical risk with 474 security events recorded over the past 30 days, including 276 critical-severity incidents concentrated across key supply chain regions. Military escalation in Russia and East Asia, combined with wildfire activity in China, has driven spot prices up 9.8% to $25,430 per ton. The severity and geographic spread of disruptions across major producing and processing countries signals elevated supply chain vulnerability.
Supply chain impact
- Stainless steel manufacturers face immediate exposure as 70% of nickel demand serves this sector, with Russian supply disruptions affecting European and North American steel producers who rely on refined nickel imports.
- EV battery supply chains are critically vulnerable through Indonesia's Sulawesi smelting operations and East Asian battery-cell manufacturing, where Chinese wildfires and regional military activity threaten the 85% of global battery production capacity concentrated in China, South Korea, and Japan.
- Tesla, CATL, and other major battery manufacturers dependent on Indonesian nickel processing face potential production delays as alternative sources lack the processing capacity and cost advantages of Sulawesi's Chinese-funded smelters.
- Aerospace and marine equipment manufacturers using high-grade nickel alloys confront supply constraints from Russian sanctions and potential processing disruptions in Asia.
- Philippines nickel ore exports to China face heightened logistics risk amid regional military tensions, potentially forcing buyers toward higher-cost alternative suppliers in Canada and New Caledonia.
Watch points
- Monitor Indonesia's nickel export policies and any new processing restrictions that could further tighten refined nickel availability, particularly given the country's history of sudden ore export bans.
- Track escalation of military activities in East Asia that could disrupt battery manufacturing in China, South Korea, and Japan, as alternative production capacity remains extremely limited globally.
- Watch for extended wildfire activity in China affecting nickel processing facilities and transportation networks, as this could compound existing supply pressures from geopolitical tensions.
Frequently asked questions
What is nickel used for in modern industry?
Which countries control global nickel production?
What supply chain risks should companies monitor for nickel?
Why is nickel important for electric vehicle supply chains?
Nickel supply chain risk by country
90d risk trend
90d price trend (DBB)
Trade flows
Source: UN Comtrade · 2026-03Recent related events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Shanghai, China2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHHalt diplomatic visits in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- MEDIUMGreen earthquake (Magnitude 5.7M, Depth:11km) in Japan 01/06/2026 03:34 UTC, Few people affected in MMI>=II2026-06-01
- CRITICALNuclear alert in Orenburgskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-01
- CRITICALBomb attack in Khabarovskiy Kray, Russia2026-06-01
- HIGHArrest/detain in City of San Juan, Philippines2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Sankt-Peterburg, Russia2026-06-01
- HIGHArrest/detain in Russia (general), Russia2026-06-01
- MEDIUMFlood in South Korea — Green alert2026-05-31
- LOWActive wildfire cluster in PH (23 detections)2026-05-31
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in ID (317 detections)2026-05-31
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in CN (527 detections)2026-05-31
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in RU (375 detections)2026-05-31
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Rostovskaya Oblast', Russia2026-05-31
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- Arrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-06-02
Arrest/detain reported in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia. Actors: REGIME, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
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Arrest/detain reported in Shanghai, Shanghai, China. Actors: POLICE, CHINESE. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
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Use conventional military force reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: VLADIMIR PUTIN, UKRAINIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
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Arrest/detain reported in San Juan City, City of San Juan, Philippines. Actors: MANILA, SENATOR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
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Use conventional military force reported in Petersburg, Sankt-Peterburg, Russia. Actors: FIREFIGHTER, ST PETERSBURG. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
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Use conventional military force reported in Mandaue, Mandaue, Philippines. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
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Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
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Economic blockade reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 5 sources.
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Arrest/detain reported in South Korea. Actors: HUNTER, SOUTH KOREA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
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Arrest/detain reported in Japan. Actors: NEW YORK, JAPAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
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Arrest/detain reported in Seoul, Soul-t'ukpyolsi, South Korea. Actors: SAINT, SOUTH KOREA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
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Use conventional military force reported in Lugansk, Novosibirskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
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