Brazil
Brazil (BR)CRITICALSouth America · pop. 216,420,000 · GDP 2,126,809 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Brazil faces severe operational disruption with 100 events recorded over the past 30 days, including 38 critical and 58 high-severity incidents. Political instability has intensified with military force deployment in Santa Catarina and economic blockades, while concurrent wildfire clusters with over 1,800 fire detections threaten agricultural regions. The concentration of critical events across political, economic, and natural disaster categories signals heightened supply chain vulnerability for Brazil's key export sectors.
Supply chain impact
- Agricultural exports face dual pressure from wildfire damage to crop regions and EU trade restrictions, with Brazilian meat exports banned from September due to antimicrobial compliance issues affecting livestock supply chains.
- Iron ore and soybean shipment routes from major ports including Santos and Rio de Janeiro experience elevated risk from political unrest and potential infrastructure disruption in Santa Catarina industrial corridors.
- Automotive and aerospace manufacturing operations may face production delays due to civil unrest and military deployments affecting component supply networks in southern Brazil.
- Coffee export timelines show vulnerability to wildfire damage in growing regions, with over 1,800 fire detections potentially impacting harvest and processing facilities.
- Crude oil extraction and export operations face operational uncertainty from economic blockades and reduced diplomatic relations affecting international energy partnerships.
Watch points
- Monitor Santa Catarina province for escalation of military activity that could disrupt Port of Itajaí operations and automotive manufacturing hubs including Blumenau and Joinville.
- Track wildfire progression in agricultural states as Brazil enters dry season, particularly for soybean and coffee growing regions that supply global commodity markets.
- Watch for expansion of EU trade restrictions beyond meat products to other Brazilian agricultural exports, especially soybeans and coffee, which could reshape global sourcing strategies.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Estado do Rio, Brazil2026-06-02
- CRITICALPhysical attack in Estado do Rio, Brazil2026-06-02
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in BR (572 detections)2026-05-31
- CRITICALAssault in Brazil2026-05-31
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (467 detections)2026-05-30
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in BR (718 detections)2026-05-29
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in BR (752 detections)2026-05-28
- CRITICALActive wildfire cluster in BR (505 detections)2026-05-27
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (405 detections)2026-05-26
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (177 detections)2026-05-25
- HIGHArrest/detain in SãPaulo, Brazil2026-05-24
- HIGHArrest/detain in SãPaulo, Brazil2026-05-24
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (321 detections)2026-05-24
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (323 detections)2026-05-23
- HIGHArrest/detain in Piauhy, Brazil2026-05-23
- HIGHArrest/detain in Piauhy, Brazil2026-05-23
- HIGHArrest/detain in AmapáR, Brazil2026-05-22
- HIGHActive wildfire cluster in BR (462 detections)2026-05-22
- HIGHArrest/detain in Estado do Rio, Brazil2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Estado do Rio, Brazil2026-05-22
Related News (30)
- Woman Rushed Hospital After Fallingdailystar.co.uk·2026-06-02
Use conventional military force reported in Rio De Janeiro, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Mothers May 20 Struggle Justiceaol.co.uk·2026-05-31
Assault reported in Brazil. Actors: CRIMINAL, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 3 sources.
- 05 24 Sas Cocaine Shame How Cops Bungled Global Trafficking Casesdailymaverick.co.za·2026-05-24
Arrest/detain reported in Guarulhos, SãPaulo, Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Stocks in Play Belo Sun Mining Corpbaystreet.ca·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Volta Grande, Piauhy, Brazil. Actors: VOLTA, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Estranged Husband Convicted of Murder For Hire in Killing of New York City Art Dealer in Brazilwinnipegfreepress.com·2026-05-22
Arrest/detain reported in Rio De Janeiro, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, HITMAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 16 sources.
- The Mandalorian Grogu Jon Favreau Oner at at Fightvariety.com·2026-05-22
Chemical weapons used reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Brazilian Navy Patrol Vessel Visits Namibiadefenceweb.co.za·2026-05-22
Arrest/detain reported in Araguari, AmapáR, Brazil. Actors: NAMIBIA, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- What s Ben Rhodes Doing Speaking Out Against The Indictment of Raul Castroamericanthinker.com·2026-05-21
Arrest/detain reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, ARGENTINA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- James Lake Kusviandy Blee Jury Rejects Defence in 57kg Cocaine Plotnewcastleherald.com.au·2026-05-21
Arrest/detain reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Influencer Francisca Silva Shot Deadmirror.co.uk·2026-05-20
Assault reported in Mato Grosso, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, ARMED MEN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 4 sources.
- Influencer 21 Shot Dead Streetdailystar.co.uk·2026-05-20
Use conventional military force reported in Coelho Neto, MaranhãBR, Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- James Lake Kusviandy Blee Guilty Newcastle Cocaine Importationabc.net.au·2026-05-20
Arrest/detain reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Chilean Businessman Faces Serious Legal Consequences in Brazil After Racist And Homophobic Outburst on Latam Flightelciudadano.com·2026-05-18
Use conventional military force reported in Rio De Janeiro, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: CHILE, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Scots Gangster Unmasked After Admittingdailyrecord.co.uk·2026-05-18
Economic blockade reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, GANG. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 4 sources.
- Asking Jailed Banker For Funds Not Wrong Says Flavio Bolsonaromassachusettssun.com·2026-05-16
Economic blockade reported in Brazil. Actors: CONGRESS, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 28 sources.
- Brazils Lula Tied With Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in Second Round in Datafolha Pollstraitstimes.com·2026-05-16
Arrest/detain reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Brazilian Meat Exports to eu Banned From September Over Antimicrobial Usethefencepost.com·2026-05-15
Military force (coercive) reported in Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, IRISH. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Brazilian Lawyer Raided by Feds Over Suspected Ties to Criminal Underworldnypost.com·2026-05-14
Use conventional military force reported in Florianopolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. Actors: BRAZILIAN, CRIMINAL. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Brazilian Influencer on The Run After Fleeing Sentencing in Fatal Road Crash Casetimesofindia.indiatimes.com·2026-05-14
Arrest/detain reported in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. Actors: MANAUS, PRISON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Mamelodi Sundowns Boss Tlhopie Motsepe Sends Message to Fans as Caf Champions League Final Beckonskickoff.com·2026-05-13
Use conventional military force reported in Brazil. Actors: ORLANDO, BRAZILIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Assault in Braziljpost.com·2026-05-12
Assault reported in Brazil. Actors: ISRAEL, BRAZILIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Amazonas, Brazilel-balad.com·2026-05-11
Arrest/detain reported in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. Actors: POLICE, MANAUS. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Brazil Travel Tips The Practical Guide For First Time American Visitorsparsippanyfocus.com·2026-05-11
Military force (coercive) reported in Leblon, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: BRAZILIAN, THE US. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Rfk jr Clears Path For Minors Use of Tanning Beds Much to The Dismay ofwbkb11.com·2026-05-10
Military force (coercive) reported in Brazil. Actors: AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Arrest/detain in SãPaulo, Brazilprokerala.com·2026-05-10
Arrest/detain reported in Sao Paulo, SãPaulo, Brazil. Actors: SAO PAULO, GOVERNMENT. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Brazilian Court Suspends Law Aimed at Reducing Bolsonaros Sentencefreemalaysiatoday.com·2026-05-10
Arrest/detain reported in Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- How British Spooks Trained Brazils Torturersmorningstaronline.co.uk·2026-05-10
Assault reported in Petropolis, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: JOURNALIST, RIO DE JANEIRO. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 8 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Distrito Federal, Brazilprokerala.com·2026-05-09
Arrest/detain reported in Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil. Actors: BRAZIL, GOVERNMENT. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Brazil China Byd Car Auto ev Industry Laborforeignpolicy.com·2026-05-08
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Bahia, Bahia, Brazil. Actors: BRAZILIAN, COMPANIES. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 10 sources.
- Brazil Amazon Illegal Miningwhittierdailynews.com·2026-05-06
Arrest/detain reported in Fiocruz, Estado do Rio, Brazil. Actors: BRAZILIAN, INDIGENOUS. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.