Russia
Russia (RU)CRITICALEurope · pop. 143,820,000 · GDP 2,240,422 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Military strikes intensified across Russia's southern industrial regions this week, with Ukrainian forces targeting defense facilities in Rostov and Samara oblasts. Export infrastructure faces mounting disruption as conflict spreads beyond border zones.
Current status
Russia faces severe supply chain disruption risks following the largest Ukrainian drone attack since the invasion began, with over 500 drones targeting multiple regions including Moscow, killing at least 3 people. The past 30 days recorded 500 events with 366 classified as critical severity, indicating an unprecedented escalation in military activities across key industrial regions. Economic blockades in Chechnya and Ingushetiya compound transportation vulnerabilities, while conventional military operations span from Moscow to Khabarovsk, affecting critical energy and mining infrastructure.
Supply chain impact
- Energy exports face immediate disruption risks as drone attacks target Moscow area refineries and infrastructure, threatening crude oil and natural gas deliveries to European and Asian buyers dependent on Russian energy supplies.
- Metal and mining operations in affected regions including Ryazanskaya Oblast and Khabarovskiy Kray may experience production delays, impacting global iron ore and steel supply chains serving automotive and construction industries.
- Transportation corridors through western Russia to Europe face heightened security risks, particularly affecting rail and pipeline networks that carry energy exports and raw materials to Germany, China, and other major trading partners.
- Defense industry supply chains are under severe stress as military operations concentrate around key production centers, potentially affecting global aerospace and military equipment manufacturers relying on Russian titanium and other specialized metals.
- Embargo actions compound existing sanctions effects, further restricting access to Russian commodities and forcing buyers to accelerate supply chain diversification efforts.
Watch points
- Monitor energy infrastructure damage assessments and production capacity reports from Gazprom and Rosneft over the next 2-3 weeks to gauge actual vs. perceived supply disruption.
- Track escalation patterns in drone attack frequency and geographic spread, particularly targeting of critical industrial hubs in Siberia and the Urals where mining operations are concentrated.
- Watch for additional regional blockades or transportation restrictions that could affect the Trans-Siberian Railway and other key logistics arteries connecting Asian and European markets.
Frequently asked questions
What is Russia's role in global commodity markets?
Which industries depend most heavily on Russian exports?
What supply chain risks should companies monitor when sourcing from Russia?
How do disruptions in Russian commodity exports affect global markets?
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- HIGHArrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALAssault in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALAssault in Tverskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Belgorodskaya Oblast', Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHHalt diplomatic visits in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALPhysical attack in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Adygeya, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALBomb attack in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- HIGHArrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALAssault in Moskva, Russia2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Sankt-Peterburg, Russia2026-06-01
- CRITICALBomb attack in Khabarovskiy Kray, Russia2026-06-01
Related News (30)
- Arrest/detain in Kabardino-Balkariya, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-06-02
Arrest/detain reported in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkariya, Russia. Actors: REGIME, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Russian Drones, Missiles Strike Ukraine in Major Attack 10 Dead, Dozens Woundedgdnonline.com·2026-06-02
Use conventional military force reported in Belgorod, Belgorodskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, CRIMEA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Russiaen.interfax.com.ua·2026-06-02
Arrest/detain reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, PROSECUTOR GENERAL. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Armenian pm Rejects Russias Demand For eu Referendum as Relations Nosedivegrenadachronicle.com·2026-06-02
Halt diplomatic visits reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: MOSCOW, ARMENIA. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 5 sources.
- Russian Missile Strikes Ukrainian Cities Casualtiesibtimes.co.uk·2026-06-02
Bomb attack reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, REGIONAL GOVERNOR. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Russia Launches 729 Drones And Missiles Overnight Ukraine Says Putin Has no Cards Except Terror Articlemoneycontrol.com·2026-06-02
Use conventional military force reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: UKRAINIAN, VLADIMIR PUTIN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Death Toll Hits 11 in Dnipro After Massive Russian Air Assaultnews.az·2026-06-02
Assault reported in Nikopol, Tverskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 10 sources.
- Bomb attack in Khabarovskiy Kray, Russiastrategypage.com·2026-06-01
Bomb attack reported in Bulava, Khabarovskiy Kray, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Firefighters Extinguish Double Vehicle Fire st Petersburg Garagefox13news.com·2026-06-01
Use conventional military force reported in Petersburg, Sankt-Peterburg, Russia. Actors: FIREFIGHTER, ST PETERSBURG. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Russia (general), Russiakoreaherald.com·2026-06-01
Arrest/detain reported in Tumen River, Russia (general), Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Russia Prepares un Court Case Against Baltic States Over Treatment of Russian Speakersweeklyblitz.net·2026-05-31
Coerce reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: MOSCOW. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Ukrainian Drones Strike Port Oil Depot in Southern Russiagcaptain.com·2026-05-31
Physical attack reported in Rostov, Rostovskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: POPULATION, KRASNODAR. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 5 sources.
- Ukraine Hits Russian Energy Targets And Denies Striking Kremlin Occupied Nuclear Plantwdrb.com·2026-05-31
Chemical weapons used reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Highlighting Greenlands Strategic Importance is Good Threatening to Invade is Not Analysiseurasiareview.com·2026-05-31
Economic blockade reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 4 sources.
- Essential Cities World Cocktailislands.com·2026-05-31
Military force (coercive) reported in Orlean, Altayskiy Kray, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- Rosatom Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plantathens-times.com·2026-05-30
Military force (coercive) reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, UKRAINE. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Demonstration/rally in Tomskaya Oblast', Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-05-30
Demonstration/rally reported in Rozhdestvenskaya, Tomskaya Oblast', Russia. Actors: ACTIVIST, KRASNODAR. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 4 sources.
- Russian Drone Hits Romanian Apartment Building Officials Saywesthawaiitoday.com·2026-05-30
Bomb attack reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: POLISH, RUSSIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Chas Freeman Hezbollah Strikes Israel Hard Israel Now Prepares For War With Egypt Turkeygreanvillepost.com·2026-05-30
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: UKRAINE, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Real Estate Agent Found With Suspected Bomb Shotgun Under Daughter s Cot ptheage.com.au·2026-05-29
Chemical weapons used reported in Yarra, Yamalo-Nenetskiy Avtonomnyy Okrug, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Putin Calls For Data on Romania Drone Incident to be Sharedheraldglobe.com·2026-05-29
Physical attack reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: ROMANIA, VLADIMIR PUTIN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 8 sources.
- Article Putin Foes Urge Canada to Rename Main Sanctions Law After Russiantheglobeandmail.com·2026-05-29
Arrest/detain reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Putin Russia Drone Romania Nato uk 6abe4b005aeb6huffingtonpost.co.uk·2026-05-29
Use conventional military force reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, ROMANIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Physical attack in Russiaspacewar.com·2026-05-29
Physical attack reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, MARK RUTTE. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Dagestan, Russiaeng.kavkaz-uzel.eu·2026-05-28
Use conventional military force reported in Babayurt, Dagestan, Russia. Actors: ALBERT, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Sanctions Law Bill Russia Critics Testimonyglobalnews.ca·2026-05-28
Arrest/detain reported in Kremlin, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, LAWYER. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Drone Attacks on Three Sanctioned Shadow Fleet Tankers in The Black Seamaritime-executive.com·2026-05-28
Use conventional military force reported in Russia. Actors: RUSSIAN, UKRAINIAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Russia Afghanistan Military Partnership Taliban New Dealpolitico.eu·2026-05-28
Military force (coercive) reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA, TERRORIST GROUP. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Drones Spotted Over Estonia Lithuania Latvia Spark Russian Invasion Fearsexpress.co.uk·2026-05-28
Economic blockade reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 5 sources.
- Terror Ultimatum us Withdraws All Strategic Weapons From Europe Shocking Executions in 58th Brigade%20title=bankingnews.gr·2026-05-27
Halt diplomatic visits reported in Moscow, Moskva, Russia. Actors: MOLDOVA, RUSSIA. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 4 sources.