Tehran Unrest 2025

What's happening

Iran is experiencing a sharp escalation in internal conflict, with 10 canonical incidents and 75 media articles over the past 45 days. The cluster shows a pattern of intensifying violence concentrated in Tehran and Esfahan, including tank/artillery attacks, bombings, and a reported chemical weapons use in the capital. The situation is deteriorating rapidly, with critical events occurring weekly and spilling into regional tensions involving Israel and the United States.

Why it matters for supply chains

• Iran's petroleum and petrochemical exports—the backbone of its economy—face immediate disruption risks from attacks on production and loading infrastructure, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
• Mining and automotive supply chains dependent on Iranian iron-ore and manufactured components will experience shipment delays and force majeure declarations as logistics corridors become insecure.
• Marine insurance premiums for vessels calling at Iranian ports or transiting the Persian Gulf will spike, increasing landed costs for any remaining trade flows.
• Substitute sourcing pressure will intensify for crude-oil and petrochemical buyers, particularly in Asian markets that rely on Iranian grades, driving up spot prices for alternative suppliers.

What to watch next

• Confirmation of the reported US-Iran deal in principle to wind down the conflict; a breakdown would signal further supply chain paralysis, while implementation could reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic.
• Expansion of attacks to Khuzestan province or Bandar Abbas port facilities, which would directly threaten the bulk of Iran's crude export capacity.
• Any formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian authorities or naval forces, which would trigger an immediate global oil price shock and emergency rerouting of tanker fleets.