TremorWatch
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Iran

Iran (IR)CRITICAL

Middle East · pop. 89,170,000 · GDP 367,975 M USD

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Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk

Major industries

petroleumpetrochemicalsminingautomotive

Major exports

crude-oilpetrochemicalsiron-ore

30d events

20
events occurred · risk score 100/100

AI Brief

TremorWatch analysis· Apr 20, 2026

Military escalation across Iran triggered economic blockades in Tehran on April 20, with Strait of Hormuz shipping routes now uncertain. Oil and petrochemical exports face immediate disruption risk.

Current status

Iran faces an acute security crisis with 500 recorded events over the past 30 days, dominated by 382 critical-severity incidents including military actions and economic blockades. Conventional military operations are reported across key provinces including Hormozgan (home to Strait of Hormuz shipping), Fars, Khuzestan (oil production hub), and Tehran, indicating widespread conflict escalation. The concentration of critical events signals severe disruption to Iran's petroleum export infrastructure and broader economic stability.

Supply chain impact

  • Persian Gulf shipping routes face immediate disruption as military actions target Hormozgan province, which controls access to the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil transits daily.
  • Global petroleum and petrochemical buyers, particularly in Asia and Europe, confront supply interruptions as Iran's crude oil exports represent roughly 3% of world production from affected Khuzestan province facilities.
  • Automotive and manufacturing industries dependent on Iranian petrochemical feedstocks experience input shortages, with economic blockades in Tehran disrupting commercial operations and logistics networks.
  • Mining sector exports including iron ore face transport bottlenecks as conventional military operations impair domestic freight movement and port access across multiple provinces.
  • Technology companies struggle with payment processing for Iranian services due to intensified sanctions enforcement, affecting digital infrastructure and telecommunications supply chains.

Watch points

  • Monitor Strait of Hormuz vessel transit data and any further military escalation in Hormozgan province that could trigger broader Persian Gulf shipping disruptions affecting 15-20 million barrels of daily oil flows.
  • Track US-Israel military coordination announcements and Iranian retaliatory measures that could expand conflict to neighboring Gulf states or critical energy infrastructure.
  • Watch for Pakistan-mediated diplomatic developments as fresh talks emerge, which could either de-escalate tensions or signal preparation for prolonged conflict affecting regional trade routes.

Frequently asked questions

What makes Iran strategically important for global supply chains?
Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass daily. The country holds some of the world's largest proven oil and natural gas reserves, making it a major energy supplier to Asia and Europe. Iran also produces significant quantities of petrochemicals and iron ore that feed into global manufacturing supply chains.
Which industries rely most heavily on Iranian exports?
Refineries and chemical manufacturers depend on Iranian crude oil and petrochemicals as key inputs. Steel producers source iron ore from Iranian mines, particularly in Asia where Iran competes with Australia and Brazil as a supplier. The automotive industry also relies on Iranian petrochemical derivatives for plastics and synthetic materials used in vehicle manufacturing.
What are the main supply chain risks when sourcing from Iran?
International sanctions frequently disrupt Iranian trade, forcing buyers to find alternative suppliers or pay higher prices. The country's control over the Strait of Hormuz means regional conflicts can halt energy shipments globally within days. Iran's banking system faces ongoing restrictions that complicate payment processing and trade finance for international transactions.
Which countries are most vulnerable to Iranian supply disruptions?
China, India, and South Korea import substantial volumes of Iranian oil and face energy security risks during supply interruptions. European chemical manufacturers rely on Iranian petrochemical exports and must secure alternative sources when sanctions tighten. Gulf states like the UAE and Kuwait depend on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes for their own energy exports, making them vulnerable to Iranian actions in the waterway.

Risk by layer

Economic & political
934 eventsCRITICAL
layer.l5
27 eventsCRITICAL

90d risk trend

2026-03-052026-06-02

Structural risk profile

Corruption Perceptions (CPI)
23/100
rank #151
ti-cpi-2024
Voice & Accountability
21/100
rank #9
wb-wgi-2022
Political stability
18/100
rank #8
wb-wgi-2022
Government effectiveness
32/100
rank #18
wb-wgi-2022
Regulatory quality
18/100
rank #4
wb-wgi-2022
Rule of law
30/100
rank #17
wb-wgi-2022
Control of corruption
28/100
rank #14
wb-wgi-2022

Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)

BrickscCarpetsc

Produced commodities

Natural Gas

Dependent chokepoints

No dependent chokepoints

Recent events (20)

Related News (30)