Change to armed group: On 14 March 2025, RSF announced the formation of Joint Forces with SPLM-N-Abdelaziz in South Kordofan (location coded to capital of SPLM-N-Abdelaziz controlled areas Kauda, Heiban).

Summary

On March 14, 2025, paramilitary group RSF in Sudan announced the creation of a joint army with SPLM-N-Abdelaziz in the South Kordofan region. While the current risk level is low, the formation of new military alliances amid Sudan's civil war could serve as a variable affecting regional stability.

Supply-chain impact

• Agriculture sector: South Kordofan is one of Sudan's major agricultural regions, and if the new military alliance strengthens control over this area, it could impact agricultural production and distribution
• Mineral resources: Sudan is a gold-producing country, and military reorganization between armed groups could bring changes to mineral extraction and export routes
• Overland logistics: The RSF-regional forces alliance could potentially change control patterns over overland transport routes in the South Kordofan area
• Humanitarian aid: New military governance structures may require readjustment of international relief supplies and medical supply routes

Watch points

• Changes in actual control over the South Kordofan region following joint army creation and impact on civilian economic activities
• Relationship changes between the RSF-SPLM-N alliance and other warring factions in Sudan's civil war, and potential for regional conflict expansion