Interception: On 14 March 2025, Russian military shot down 1 likely Ukrainian drone over the outskirts of Obninsk (Kaluga). No casualties.

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary On March 14, 2025, one Ukrainian drone was shot down by Russian forces on the outskirts of Obninsk in Russia's Kaluga Oblast. There were no casualties, but this indicates that drone attacks are expanding to areas approximately 100km southwest of Moscow. Currently assessed as a low-risk, isolated incident.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Kaluga Oblast is a central Russian industrial region with concentrated automotive (Volkswagen, Volvo, etc.) and pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities, but no direct production shutdowns have been reported from this incident
• Obninsk is a science city housing nuclear research institutes, raising concerns about potential future attacks on strategic targets
• With drone infiltration confirmed in the Moscow metropolitan area, enhanced security measures are expected across Russia's western industrial belt

3) Watch points

• Whether additional drone attacks occur targeting industrial facilities in Kaluga Oblast and around Moscow, and trends in frequency increases
• Monitoring announcements of production schedule adjustments or temporary shutdowns by manufacturers in Russia's western regions