On 14 March 2025, Ukrainian military carried out 2 drone strikes and shelled 2 times with 12 (likely) artillery shells 2 locations across the Grayvoronskiy district, including the village of Gorkovsky (Belgorod). Across 2 locations: No casualties.

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

On March 14, 2025, Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes and artillery attacks on two areas in the Grayvoronsky district of Russia's Belgorod region. Villages including Gorkovsky were targeted, with no casualties reported. However, ongoing military conflicts in border areas continue to cause logistics instability.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Russia-Ukraine border logistics disruption: Belgorod region serves as a major agricultural area and border logistics hub with Ukraine, with attacks reducing land transport route safety
• Agricultural production activity decline: Grayvoronsky district is a grain production area, and attacks during spring planting season expected to negatively impact agricultural activities and agricultural supply chains
• Energy infrastructure risk: Potential disruption to Russian energy exports if gas pipelines and power transmission facilities in Belgorod region become additional attack targets
• Increased dependence on alternative transport routes: Border area instability with Ukraine necessitates expanded use of southern and eastern Russian transport routes

3. Watch points

• Additional attack frequency in Belgorod region: Concerns over prolonged logistics disruption if military activity increases in the area over the next 2-3 weeks
• Changes to Russian grain export routes: Need to track impact of spring planting season disruptions on second-half grain export volumes and prices