[Myanmar] Strategic developments: Change to group/activity

Summary

Single-source ACLED detection — awaiting independent verification. The Arakan Army imposed a nighttime curfew in northern Maungdaw township, Rakhine state, Myanmar on March 30, 2025, restricting movement between 6 PM and 6 AM. This represents a low-severity strategic development in an area that has seen ongoing conflict between ethnic armed groups and Myanmar's military.

Supply chain impact

No commodities or chokepoints are directly mapped to this event; second-order effects depend on how the situation escalates and whether the security measures expand beyond the current geographic scope or affect broader economic activity in Rakhine state.

Watch points

• Monitor for expansion of curfew measures to other townships in Rakhine state or escalation of Arakan Army control in the region
• Track any reports of disrupted cross-border trade with Bangladesh, given Maungdaw's proximity to the international border