Myanmar

Myanmar (MM)CRITICAL

Southeast Asia · pop. 54,410,000 · GDP 65,093 M USD

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Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk

Major industries

agricultureminingtextiles

Major exports

natural-gasrare-earthtextiles

30d events

20
events occurred · risk score 100/100

AI Brief

Current status

Myanmar's risk environment has deteriorated sharply over the last 30 days, with 54 recorded incidents dominated by critical-severity events (27 of 54). Military operations involving conventional and chemical weapons have escalated across key regions including Mandalay, Magway, Sagain, and Kachin State. The concentration of high-impact events signals an intensifying conflict that is disrupting normal economic activity and infrastructure.

Supply chain impact

  • Natural gas exports face immediate disruption risk as military operations concentrate in Magway region, a key energy production area with pipeline infrastructure connecting to regional markets.
  • Rare earth mineral supply chains are under severe stress, with mining operations in conflict-affected northern regions (Kachin State) experiencing operational shutdowns and transport route blockages.
  • Textile manufacturing for international buyers is experiencing production delays and facility closures, particularly affecting garment supply chains serving European and North American markets.
  • Cross-border trade with China and Thailand faces mounting delays as security deteriorates along traditional smuggling and legitimate trade corridors.
  • Ruby and gemstone exports continue despite conflict, but mining operations in war-affected areas carry elevated operational and reputational risks for international buyers.

Watch points

  • Monitor pipeline infrastructure targeting in Magway region, as energy export disruptions could affect regional natural gas supplies within 2-3 weeks.
  • Track escalation patterns in Mandalay and surrounding areas, where repeated chemical weapons incidents indicate potential for broader industrial area shutdowns.
  • Watch for international sanctions expansion targeting Myanmar's natural resource exports, particularly rare earth minerals critical to technology supply chains.

Risk by layer

Natural disaster
1 eventsLOW
Economic & political
20 eventsCRITICAL
layer.l5
21 eventsCRITICAL

90d risk trend

2026-03-052026-06-02

Structural risk profile

Corruption Perceptions (CPI)
16/100
rank #168
ti-cpi-2024
Voice & Accountability
14/100
rank #2
wb-wgi-2022
Political stability
6/100
rank #3
wb-wgi-2022
Government effectiveness
16/100
rank #6
wb-wgi-2022
Regulatory quality
25/100
rank #10
wb-wgi-2022
Rule of law
19/100
rank #6
wb-wgi-2022
Control of corruption
27/100
rank #13
wb-wgi-2022

Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)

BamboocfcBeans (green, soy, yellow)cfcBrickscfcFishfGarmentscfJadecfPalm ThatchfRicecfcRubbercfcRubiescfSesamefShrimpfSugarcanecfcSunflowersfTeakcfc

Produced commodities

Dependent chokepoints

No dependent chokepoints

Recent events (20)

Related News (17)