Displacement: On 14 March 2025, in Nyaung-U township (Nyaung-U district, Mandalay region), thousands of locals were forced to flee as the Myanmar military fired heavy weapons during the armed clash with local PDF troops (coded separately).

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary Thousands of residents were forced to evacuate following armed clashes between government forces and local People's Defense Forces (PDF) in Nyaung-U district, Mandalay region, Myanmar on March 14. This is classified as a low-intensity strategic event occurring as an extension of Myanmar's ongoing civil war situation.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Mandalay region logistics disruption: Nyaung-U serves as an important hub in the north-south logistics axis as a major central Myanmar city, with expected short-term disruptions to regional transportation and distribution networks
• Agricultural production disruption: Mandalay is a major agricultural region in Myanmar, with potential localized impacts on production and distribution of rice, sesame, legumes, and other crops
• Tourism industry impact: Nyaung-U is located near Bagan archaeological sites, raising concerns of temporary suspension of tourism and related service industries
• China-Myanmar overland connectivity: Mandalay is positioned on major overland routes connecting China's Yunnan province with Myanmar, potentially affecting bilateral trade flows

3) Watch points

• Conflict escalation: Need to track additional fighting within Nyaung-U region and potential spread to Mandalay city center
• Refugee scale and duration: Concerns over deepening paralysis of regional economic activity if the situation of thousands of displaced civilians becomes prolonged
• Government response: Monitoring Myanmar military junta's efforts to restore control over the area and civilian protection measures