[Tehran, Tehran, Iran] Bomb attack — FILIPINA → HAIFA

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary A large-scale military operation occurred in Tehran, Iran on April 16, 2026, assessed at a severe tension index level of -10. The rapid escalation of geopolitical instability in the Middle East region is expected to act as a direct risk factor for global energy supply chains.

2) Supply-chain Impact

• Natural gas supply disruption concerns: Iran is the world's second-largest natural gas reserve holder, and if military tensions damage production and export infrastructure, global gas supply chain instability will intensify
• Middle East energy hub risk expansion: Military operations within Iran could negatively impact the operating environment of neighboring major energy-producing countries, potentially reducing overall regional energy supply capacity
• Increased energy price volatility: Supply concerns due to military instability in the Middle East region will act as a driver for sharp increases in natural gas and crude oil prices
• Alternative supply chain pressure: Given Europe and Asia's dependence on Iranian natural gas, intensified competition to secure alternative supply sources is expected

3) Watch Points

• Scale of damage to Iranian energy infrastructure and duration of production shutdowns - Need to track operational status of major gas fields and export terminals
• Potential for regional spread and neighboring country responses - Whether Saudi Arabia, UAE and other nearby energy-producing countries implement enhanced security measures and change production plans