[Colombia] Strategic developments: Other

Colombia Antioquia Province Armed Group Threats Cause Resident Displacement

1) Summary Around March 20, 2025, approximately 70 households of former FARC combatant families were forcibly displaced from the San Francisco area in Antioquia Province, Colombia to Puerto Parra in Santander Province due to ELN (National Liberation Army) threats. The escalating territorial conflicts between armed groups and resulting regional security instability are analyzed as the primary causes.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Cocaine raw material production region instability: Antioquia Province is a major coca cultivation area in Colombia, and increased armed group activity could indirectly affect illegal crop control and agricultural production
• Inland transportation route risks: The overland transport route between Antioquia-Santander is a major pathway connecting Colombia's interior with the Caribbean coast, raising concerns about increased logistics costs if regional security deteriorates
• Regional agricultural production disruption: Forced displacement is expected to temporarily impact regional agricultural supply chains due to reduced agricultural workforce and suspended production activities
• Potential energy infrastructure risks: Santander Province is an oil-producing region, and expansion of armed group activities could increase security threats to energy infrastructure

3) Watch points

• ELN activity expansion scope: Need to track ELN territorial expansion within Antioquia Province and conflict patterns with other armed groups
• Government security response effectiveness: Monitor the effectiveness of Colombian government military operation reinforcement and civilian protection measures in the affected areas