Colombia

Current status

Colombia faces severely elevated security risks with 96 incidents recorded in the last 30 days, dominated by 53 critical-severity events including chemical weapons use, military operations, and economic blockades. Political and economic instability accounts for the majority of incidents, with armed groups actively disrupting operations across key regions including Valle del Cauca, Boyacá, and La Guajira. The country's weak governance indicators (37/100 stability, 39/100 corruption perception) provide little buffer against this escalating violence.

Supply chain impact

• Coal exports from La Guajira face immediate disruption due to economic blockades in the region, directly affecting thermal coal shipments to Europe and Asia through Puerto Bolívar.
• Oil pipeline infrastructure in Valle del Cauca experiences heightened attack risk given concentrated military operations, potentially impacting crude exports through Pacific coast terminals.
• Coffee supply chains encounter mounting pressure as armed groups target rural areas, threatening the upcoming harvest season for arabica beans destined for North American and European markets.
• Mining operations across Boyacá department face operational shutdowns due to chemical weapons incidents, affecting coal and emerald extraction activities.
• Port operations at Cartagena and Barranquilla may experience delays as security incidents spread beyond traditional conflict zones into transportation corridors.

Watch points

• Monitor coal loading operations at Puerto Bolívar for continued blockade activity, particularly given La Guajira's strategic importance for thermal coal exports.
• Track escalation of chemical weapons incidents beyond Valle del Cauca and Boyacá, which could signal broader operational disruptions across Colombia's mining and energy sectors.
• Watch for spillover effects into major transportation arteries connecting inland production areas to Caribbean coast ports, especially the Magdalena River corridor.