[Kenya] Demonstration/rally — CITIZEN

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Kenya Political Protests

1. Summary

Political protests involving citizens occurred in Kenya on April 14, with a tension index of -6.5 indicating significant social instability. The political unrest in Kenya, which serves as a regional hub for East Africa, is likely to impact regional logistics networks and agricultural exports.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural sector: Kenya is a major exporter of tea, coffee, and horticultural crops; transportation disruptions from protests raise concerns of global agricultural supply chain delays
• Regional logistics hub: Potential risk of disruptions to logistics routes for East African landlocked countries (Uganda, Rwanda, etc.) through Nairobi and Mombasa Port
• Manufacturing: Production and export activities of textile and food processing companies in Kenya may be temporarily suspended if protests spread
• Fuel supply: Regional fuel supply chains through Mombasa refinery facilities could be affected by reduced port accessibility

3. Watch points

• Protest persistence and spread: Whether protests spread to the capital Nairobi and major port city Mombasa, and duration of continuation
• Government response: Potential for logistics operations shutdown if strong response measures such as martial law or curfews are announced