Kenya

Current status

Kenya faces severe operational disruptions with 113 security incidents recorded over the past 30 days, including 51 critical and 59 high-severity events. The risk environment has deteriorated sharply, with military force deployed across multiple regions including Nairobi, Central, Rift Valley, and Western provinces. Martial law and curfews in the capital alongside reports of unconventional violence signal a breakdown in normal commercial operations.

Supply chain impact

• Tea and coffee export flows from Kenya's highland regions face major disruption as military operations span Rift Valley and Central provinces, home to key agricultural processing facilities and transport corridors to Mombasa port.
• Flower exports to European markets are at severe risk given the concentration of horticultural operations in Nairobi's periphery, where martial law and military deployments directly impact cold chain logistics and airport cargo operations.
• Tourism-dependent supply chains serving safari lodges and coastal resorts face immediate cancellations and inventory write-offs as security conditions deteriorate across multiple provinces.
• Regional trade routes connecting East Africa through Nairobi hub are compromised, affecting landlocked countries like Uganda, South Sudan, and eastern DRC that rely on Kenyan transport infrastructure.
• Border violence between Marsabit and Wajir provinces threatens cross-border livestock and goods movement with Somalia and Ethiopia, critical for regional food security.

Watch points

• Monitor Mombasa port operations and the Northern Corridor transport route, as any extension of violence to Kenya's primary trade gateway would paralyze East African commerce.
• Track escalation indicators in agricultural regions during the current harvest season, particularly for tea estates in Central and Rift Valley provinces that generate 40% of Kenya's export earnings.
• Watch for international travel advisories and insurance coverage restrictions that could trigger force majeure clauses in existing procurement contracts with Kenyan suppliers.