대만
Taiwan (TW)CRITICALEast Asia · 인구 23,570,000 · GDP 790,728 M USD
이 점수는 왜? · 30일 리스크를 움직인 이벤트 20건 중 Top 3
주요 산업
주요 수출품
30일 이벤트
AI 브리핑
현재 상황
대만은 지난 30일간 15건의 격화 사건이 기록된 가운데 전례 없는 공급망 위기에 직면해 있으며, 이 중 3건은 위험, 6건은 고위험 수준의 사건들입니다. 핵 경보, 화련현의 경제 봉쇄, 재래식 군사력 배치 등 군사적 긴장이 급격히 고조되고 있습니다. 타이베이의 정치적 시위와 증가하는 국제적 요구는 전 세계 반도체 공급망을 직접적으로 위협하는 급속히 악화되는 안보 환경을 나타내고 있습니다.
공급망 영향
- 대만이 TSMC 및 기타 파운드리를 통해 전 세계 Apple, NVIDIA, AMD, 자동차 부문에 서비스를 제공하는 첨단 칩 제조의 90% 이상을 통제하고 있어 전 세계 반도체 생산이 심각한 중단 위험에 직면해 있습니다.
- 아시아-태평양 지역 전반의 전자제품 조립 및 부품 공급망이 즉시 취약한 상태에 있으며, 중국, 일본, 한국, 동남아시아의 소비자 전자제품, 자동차, 산업장비 제조업에 연쇄적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다.
- 화련현의 경제 봉쇄는 특히 대만 동부 항만과 교통 인프라를 위협하여 태평양 해운 항로를 통한 반도체 원자재 수입과 완제품 수출을 중단시킬 가능성이 있습니다.
- 전 세계 데이터센터, 통신장비, 방위 시스템을 위한 기술 하드웨어 조달이 대만의 생산 능력에 접근할 수 없게 될 경우 심각한 부족 위험에 직면하게 됩니다.
- 한국, 일본, 신흥 중국 생산능력의 대체 반도체 조달원은 단기간 내에 대만의 첨단 노드 생산(5nm, 3nm)을 대체할 수 없습니다.
모니터링 포인트
- 타이완 해협 군사 활동과 신주 및 타이중의 주요 반도체 제조 허브로의 경제 봉쇄 확대를 모니터링하십시오. 이는 완전한 공급망 단절을 의미할 수 있습니다.
- TSMC 및 주요 파운드리 생산 현황 업데이트, 수출 라이선스 제한, 국제 시설로의 생산 이전 발표를 추적하십시오.
- 주요 기술 기업들의 반도체 재고 확충과 더 광범위한 전자제품 부문 중단을 야기할 수 있는 잠재적 할당/배급 발표를 주시하십시오.
레이어별 리스크
90일 리스크 추이
구조적 리스크 프로파일
강제·아동노동 생산 품목 (US DoL 2024)
생산 원자재
의존 초크포인트
최근 이벤트 (20)
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 경제 봉쇄2026-06-01
- CRITICALTaiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-31
- CRITICALTaiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-30
- CRITICALTaiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-30
- CRITICALTaiwan (general), Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-27
- HIGHTaiwan — 시위/집회2026-05-27
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-26
- CRITICALTaiwan — 군사적 과시2026-05-24
- HIGHTaoyuan Xian, Taiwan — 체포/구금2026-05-23
- CRITICALTaoyuan Xian, Taiwan — 탱크/포병 공격2026-05-22
- HIGHT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-22
- CRITICALTaiwan (general), Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-21
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-21
- HIGHT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 원조 축소2026-05-21
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-21
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 군사적 과시2026-05-20
- HIGHTaiwan — 군사적 무력 사용2026-05-20
- CRITICALT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 제재/금융 제재2026-05-20
- HIGHT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 체포/구금2026-05-20
- HIGHT'ai-pei, Taiwan — 체포/구금2026-05-19
관련 뉴스 (30)
- Nvidia Unveils ai pc Chip For Laptops And Desktopspakistantoday.com.pk·2026-06-01
Economic blockade reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIPEI, COMPANY. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-31
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWANESE, BRITAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Mandaue City Reports 12 Drop in Firessunstar.com.ph·2026-05-30
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan. Actors: PHILIPPINE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Wevr The Blu Expedition Taiwanblooloop.com·2026-05-27
Demonstration/rally reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 10 sources.
- Nvidias Taiwan Problem The ai Boom is Now Dependent on One Islandsify.com·2026-05-27
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Taiwan Tracks Second Chinese Combat Patrol in a Week Sends Ships And Jets to Monitorinternazionale.it·2026-05-26
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, CHINESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Trump Taiwan China Ukraine Arms Sales bindependent.co.uk·2026-05-24
Show of force reported in Taiwan. Actors: MILITARY, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Taoyuan Xian, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Fujian, Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan. Actors: FUJIAN, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Taiwan Woman Decapitated Illegal Freight Elevator Liftasiaone.com·2026-05-22
Military force (coercive) reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAINAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- China Taiwan Update May 22aei.org·2026-05-22
Tank/artillery attack reported in Fujian, Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Use conventional military force in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-21
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- India Sees Relations With China in a Bilateral Context Beijing Has Never Seen it That Waythehindu.com·2026-05-21
Use conventional military force reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, CHINA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Taiwanese Leader Lai Ill be Happy to Talk to Trumpmanilatimes.net·2026-05-21
Cut aid reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: WASHINGTON, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5.6 · 3 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-20
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAICHUNG, PRISON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Taiwans President Says Future Will Not be Decided by External Forcesgrenadachronicle.com·2026-05-20
Show of force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: PRESIDENT, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 5 sources.
- Military force (coercive) in Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-20
Military force (coercive) reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Conservative mp Michael Chong Meets With Taiwan President as China Dials up Pressurensnews.com·2026-05-20
Impose sanctions reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: FRANCE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 20 sources.
- Cut aid in Taiwan (general), Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-19
Cut aid reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: CHINA, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5.6 · 4 sources.
- Taiwan And uk Strengthen ai And Innovation Ties at Etcc 32nd Annual Conferencemanilatimes.net·2026-05-19
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Taiwan Defies Trump Reasserts Sovereigntydailyexpress.com.my·2026-05-17
Demonstration/rally reported in Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Hall, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 10 sources.
- Trump Says us Wont Travel Miles to Fight Taiwans War For Independenceaninews.in·2026-05-16
Use conventional military force reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: CHINA, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Bipartisan Senate Group Asks President Trump Administration State Secretary Rubio to Reaffirm Support For Taiwan Taipei China Beijing xi Jinpingklewtv.com·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: SENATOR, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 16 sources.
- Trumps Five Tap Secret Code Handshake Bullfrog Smiledailymail.com·2026-05-14
Seize property/assets reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 3 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwannews.ltn.com.tw·2026-05-13
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIPEI, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-13
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAICHUNG, PROSECUTOR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Taiwan Stages Live Fire Drill Mainland Facing Island Trump Heads Beijingscmp.com·2026-05-13
Assault reported in Quemoy, Jinmen Xian, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, LIBERATION ARMY. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Trade Taiwan Iran Cast Shadows Trumps China Summit xi Rcnanbcnews.com·2026-05-13
Show of force reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWANESE, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 8 sources.
- Taiwan Independence Forces And Japans Right Wing Agenda Threaten Regional Stabilityweeklyblitz.net·2026-05-12
Demonstration/rally reported in Chianan, T'ai-chung, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, JAPANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 8 sources.
- Trump to Discuss Taiwan Arms Sales Jailed hk Tycoon Jimmy Lai With xithestar.com.my·2026-05-12
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: BEIJING, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- in War With Iran China Sees Familiar Pattern of u s Mistakeslatimes.com·2026-05-12
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: CHINESE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.