On 14 March 2025, Russian and Ukrainian military forces clashed near Lysivka, Donetsk. The Russian military lost 199 soldiers, 98 of them irreversibly, near Sukha Balka, Vodiane Druhe, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Kotliarivka, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Tarasivka, Hrodivka, Lysivka, Novopavlivka, Serhiivka and Udachne (98 fatalities split across 15 locations and coded as 6).

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

On March 14, 2025, large-scale fighting occurred between Russian and Ukrainian forces near Lysiivka in Ukraine's Donetsk region. Russian forces reportedly suffered losses of 199 personnel (98 killed) across 15 areas, with intense combat continuing around key strongholds including Pokrovsk. Military tensions on the eastern Donetsk front have significantly escalated.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural production disruption: Donetsk region is a major grain-producing area in Ukraine, with ongoing combat potentially causing disruptions to spring planting operations and agricultural infrastructure operations
• Coal and steel supply chain risk: Pokrovsk is one of Ukraine's major coal production hubs, with combat escalation expected to negatively impact energy supply and steel raw material supply
• Logistics network paralysis: Combat areas are adjacent to major transportation routes in eastern Donetsk, creating additional constraints on material transport to western Ukraine and export routes
• Humanitarian crisis expansion: Widespread fighting across 15 settlements causing serious disruptions to civilian evacuation and humanitarian supply delivery

3. Watch points

• Pokrovsk front developments: Need to closely monitor changes in control of Pokrovsk, a major coal production hub, and whether additional combat spreads
• Donetsk transportation infrastructure status: Need to monitor operational disruptions of major rail and road networks and potential development of alternative routes