On 14 March 2025, Israeli tanks targeted residential houses in western camp in Tal as Sultan (Rafah, Gaza Strip) with gunfire. Casualties unknown. This event occurred following the expiration of the first phase of the ceasefire.

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

On March 14, 2025, Israeli-Palestinian military clashes resumed in the Rafah area of Gaza after the end of the first phase of the ceasefire. Israeli tanks shelled residential areas in the western Tal as-Sultan refugee camp, with regional instability in the Middle East escalating once again.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Energy supply chain: Heightened military tensions in the Middle East region may create upward pressure on crude oil and natural gas prices and increase risks to energy transportation routes
• Maritime logistics: Safety concerns over nearby Red Sea and Suez Canal routes pose potential impacts on global shipping schedules and transportation costs
• Regional manufacturing: Disruptions to manufacturing facilities and port operations in Israel and Palestine, particularly risks to technology and chemical industry production activities
• Agricultural supply chain: Continued suspension of agricultural production in Gaza and deepening instability in Middle East regional food supply chains

3. Watch points

• Possibility of ceasefire agreement resumption and scope of military conflict expansion - involvement of neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Syria
• Changes in navigation safety of Suez Canal and Red Sea maritime routes and trends in global shipping companies adopting alternative routes
• Risk level of attacks on Middle East regional energy facilities and signals of expanding international oil price volatility