Drought is on going in Libya, Tunisia

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Libya-Tunisia Drought

1. Summary

An ongoing drought in Libya and Tunisia was reported at intermediate level (Green stage) on March 25, 2024. Due to the dry climate characteristics of the North Africa region, continuous pressure is being applied to agricultural productivity and water resource security, though the current alert level remains relatively low.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural production disruption: Potential reduction in harvest volumes of major crops such as olive oil, wheat, and barley, affecting Mediterranean agricultural supply chains
• Energy infrastructure burden: Concerns over reduced hydroelectric capacity and cooling water shortages leading to decreased power plant operation rates and constraints on industrial production activities
• Port operations impact: Increased costs for ship water supply services and port operations due to freshwater supply shortages at Tunisia's Radès Port, Sfax Port, and others
• Inland transport route constraints: Potential logistics delays due to increased dust and reduced visibility on inland transport routes

3. Watch points

• Precipitation forecast trends: Need to monitor spring rainfall patterns and Mediterranean weather changes over the next 2-3 months
• Agricultural harvest season conditions: Track production data and export volume fluctuations during the April-June olive and grain harvest seasons
• Water resource policy responses: Observe the ripple effects of both governments' water rationing policies or agricultural support measures on industrial activities