Drought is on going in Kenya, Somalia

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary The ongoing drought in Kenya and Somalia has been classified as Orange alert level, indicating high supply-chain risk. The persistent dry climate in the East Africa region is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural productivity and food security.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural production disruption: Kenya's major agricultural products (tea, coffee, horticultural crops) and Somalia's livestock industry productivity are expected to significantly decline
• Food price increases: Rising volatility in global food commodity prices due to grain and meat supply shortages within the East Africa region
• Port operations impact: Reduced agricultural export volumes from Kenya's Mombasa port and Somalia's Mogadishu port will damage regional logistics networks
• Power supply instability: Concerns over manufacturing and cold storage facility operations disruptions due to power shortages, given Kenya's high dependence on hydroelectric power

3) Watch points

• Need to track rainfall forecasts and drought duration projections from Kenya Meteorological Department and Somali authorities
• Monitor East Africa regional agricultural production statistics and WFP (World Food Programme) food security reports
• Observe alternative supply-chain utilization possibilities from neighboring Ethiopia, Uganda and trends in regional logistics cost changes