Sudan virus disease – Uganda

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Sudan Virus Disease Outbreak in Uganda

1. Summary

The Uganda Ministry of Health officially declared a Sudan Virus Disease (SVD) outbreak on January 30, with one fatality at Kampala National Hospital. This high-risk infectious disease from the same family as Ebola has resulted in 45 people classified as contacts, including 34 healthcare workers. Potential disruption risks have emerged for East African logistics and agricultural supply chains.

2. Supply-chain impact

• East African agricultural exports: Uganda is a major producer of coffee, cotton, and sugar, with potential labor shortages and export restrictions if the disease spreads
• Kenya-Tanzania overland transport routes: Kampala serves as an inland logistics hub for East Africa, with expected delays in the transport network connecting to Kenya's Mombasa port if border controls are tightened
• Medical supply demand surge: Urgent procurement needs for medical supplies including personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing kits will strain global medical supply chains
• Air cargo restrictions: Potential flight restrictions by international airlines on Uganda routes raise concerns about disruption to emergency cargo transport
• Regional food safety inspections: Strengthened import inspections by neighboring countries are expected to slow intra-regional agricultural trade in East Africa

3. Watch points

• WHO emergency declaration status: Declaration of Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) would expand global transport and trade restrictions
• Kenya-Tanzania border controls: Border closure measures by neighboring countries could completely paralyze East African logistics networks
• Additional confirmed cases among contacts: Additional confirmed cases among the 45 contacts would expand the scale of regional lockdowns and supply chain disruptions