Influenza A (H5N1) virus - China

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

WHO reported on March 7, 2024, cases of avian influenza (H5N1) virus occurring in China. The current risk level is assessed as low, however, H5N1 is a variant with high fatality rates that could severely impact global supply chains if it spreads.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural and livestock risks — H5N1 spread could lead to mass culling of poultry, causing disruptions in meat and egg supply and fluctuations in feed grain demand
• Potential risks to Chinese manufacturing — Large-scale spread could halt manufacturing facility operations in China and cause labor shortages, threatening global manufacturing supply chains
• Logistics and transportation constraints — Enhanced quarantine measures could delay air and maritime transport from China and strengthen border controls
• Raw material procurement instability — Potential risk of export disruptions for critical raw materials like rare earth elements and lithium, where China is a major supplier

3. Watch points

• WHO risk level changes — Monitor whether current 'low' level gets upgraded and signals of pandemic stage entry
• Chinese government response — Track intensity of quarantine measures including regional lockdowns, traffic controls, and factory operation restrictions