Measles – Nepal

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Nepal Measles Outbreak

1. Summary

A measles outbreak spread across 7 regions in western Nepal from November 2022 to March 2023, resulting in 690 confirmed cases and 1 death. This outbreak, classified as 'high' risk by WHO, began in Nepalgunj in the Banke region and spread to western areas. While the case fatality rate of 0.14% is relatively low, the high transmissibility raises concerns about further spread.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Medical supply demand surge: Local demand for medical supplies including vaccines, antipyretics, and antivirals has increased significantly, potentially expanding Nepal exports for related pharmaceutical companies
• Labor force disruptions: Temporary workforce shortages possible in manufacturing and agricultural sectors across the 7 western regions due to quarantine of infected individuals
• Logistics and transport constraints: Regional movement restrictions to prevent infection spread could partially disrupt inland transport networks
• Border control tightening: Enhanced quarantine measures at India-Nepal border areas may cause delays in small-scale bilateral trade and personnel movement

3. Watch points

• Spread range tracking: Need to monitor whether outbreak spreads to eastern Nepal regions and major cities like Kathmandu
• Border control measures: Observe actual impact on logistics from Indian government response level and enhanced border quarantine measures