Ebola virus disease update - West Africa

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: West Africa Ebola Virus Outbreak

1. Summary

Between August 2-4, 2014, WHO reported 108 new confirmed Ebola virus cases and 45 deaths across Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. This represents a widespread outbreak across four West African countries, classified by WHO as a 'high' risk situation.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Mineral resource supply disruptions: Concerns over constraints on mining operations and export activities from major mineral-producing countries including Sierra Leone (diamonds, bauxite) and Guinea (bauxite, iron ore)
• Agricultural commodity risks: Potential disruption of production and export systems for cocoa, coffee, palm oil and other agricultural products from the West Africa region
• Maritime logistics networks: Risk of operational shutdowns at Gulf of Guinea coastal ports (Freetown, Monrovia, Conakry) and international shipping avoidance
• Labor supply chains: Labor shortages in manufacturing and primary industries within outbreak areas, plus restrictions on inter-regional workforce movement due to border controls
• Regional economic ripple effects: Overall contraction of intra-regional trade and logistics networks due to preventive border closure measures by neighboring African countries

3. Watch points

• WHO emergency declaration status: Potential expansion of international trade and travel restrictions if a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) is declared under International Health Regulations (IHR)
• Major export port operational status: Trends in cargo throughput at key West African ports and decisions by international shipping companies to suspend port calls
• Neighboring country border control tightening: Developments in border closures and trade restriction measures by adjacent countries including Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Senegal