Polio in the Syrian Arab Republic - update

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Syria Polio Outbreak

1) Summary A total of 17 cases of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) infection have been confirmed in Syria, creating medium-level supply-chain risk. Cases occurred in Deir al-Zour (15 cases), Damascus suburbs, and Aleppo, confirming widespread virus transmission, with the most recent outbreak recorded on October 8, 2013.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Widespread transmission across major Syrian cities (Damascus, Aleppo) and eastern Deir al-Zour region poses potential impact on domestic logistics networks overall
• Expected supply-chain pressure on related products due to increased urgent demand for medical supplies, vaccines, and quarantine equipment
• Potential for strengthened quarantine measures affecting trade and logistics flows with neighboring Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon due to outbreaks in multiple regions including border areas
• Concerns over labor disruptions in grain production and distribution due to outbreak in agriculture-centered Deir al-Zour region
• Potential constraints on related industrial production activities if Aleppo region, where chemical and petroleum facilities are concentrated, is affected

3) Watch points

• Border control strengthening measures by neighboring countries (Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan) and trends in trade volume changes
• WHO updates on additional outbreak status and changes in regional transmission patterns
• Actual constraint levels that Syrian government and international organization response measures impose on logistics and production activities