Avian influenza - situation in Egypt - update 4

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary On February 15, 2007, WHO issued its 4th update on the avian influenza (AI) situation in Egypt. While specific outbreak scale or spread extent was not specified, consecutive updates suggest a situation requiring continuous monitoring. Current risk level is assessed as low.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Poultry industry: Egypt is a major poultry producer in the Middle East region, with potential for chicken and egg export suspensions and price volatility during AI outbreaks
• Feed grains: Concerns over reduced demand for feed grains such as corn and soybean meal due to scaled-back poultry farming
• Medical supplies: Expected increase in demand for vaccines, quarantine equipment, and personal protective equipment for AI response
• Logistics networks: Need to review potential impacts on Middle East-Europe agricultural and livestock trade routes if spread occurs around Egypt's Suez Canal area

3) Watch points

• Track infection spread scope and changes in quarantine measure intensity through WHO follow-up updates
• Monitor Egypt's Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation poultry-related import/export restrictions and neighboring countries' decisions on trade suspensions