Avian influenza – situation in China – update 7

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

On March 8, 2006, WHO issued its 7th update on the avian influenza (AI) situation in China. While specific outbreak locations or infection scale were not specified, the continuous update releases suggest the situation is under ongoing monitoring. The current risk level is assessed as low.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Poultry supply chain: Potential preventive disposal or movement restrictions at chicken, duck, and other poultry breeding and slaughter facilities within China
• Feed industry: Expected decrease in demand for feed grains such as corn and soybean meal if poultry farming is reduced
• Food processing: Risk of production delays due to temporary shutdowns of poultry product processing plants or additional quarantine procedures
• Logistics networks: Possible increase in transportation time due to enhanced quarantine measures on livestock transport routes within China
• International trade: Possibility of enhanced quarantine or temporary import restrictions on Chinese poultry products by importing countries

3. Watch points

• Spread scope: Monitor expansion of infection areas and occurrence of human infection cases through subsequent WHO updates
• Government response: Track intensity of Chinese authorities' epidemic prevention measures including poultry movement restrictions, slaughter bans, and preventive culling
• International reactions: Monitor changes in major trading countries' import policies for Chinese livestock products and trends in quarantine procedure enhancement