Avian influenza – situation in Egypt

Summary — On March 20, 2006, an avian influenza (AI) outbreak in Egypt was reported by WHO. Currently classified as 'low' grade, suggesting this is either an early stage or limited spread situation.

Supply-chain impact

• Direct impact on Egypt's poultry industry - potential suspension of chicken, egg, and poultry by-product exports
• Cascading effects on Middle East agricultural trade networks - expected import restrictions on Egyptian agricultural and livestock products from neighboring countries
• Potential logistics delays due to enhanced quarantine inspections of agricultural and livestock cargo transiting the Suez Canal
• Psychological impact on global grain markets - increased grain price volatility due to food security concerns in the Middle East region

Watch points

• Need to track spread scope and control status through follow-up situation reports from WHO and OIE
• Monitor scale of poultry culling by Egyptian government and duration of export ban measures
• Verify status of border controls and enhanced quarantine measures by neighboring countries (Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia)