Avian influenza – situation in China – update 51

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary WHO issued its 51st update on the avian influenza situation in China on December 30, 2005. While specific outbreak locations and infection scale were not specified, the situation requires continued monitoring. Current risk level is classified as low.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Poultry industry: China is one of the world's largest poultry producers, and avian influenza outbreaks could lead to suspension of chicken and egg exports and increased price volatility
• Feed grains: Changes in demand patterns for feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal are expected to impact international grain markets
• Logistics networks: Potential for logistics delays due to strengthened transportation and quarantine measures for agricultural products within China
• Biosecurity: Possibility of neighboring countries introducing import restrictions on Chinese livestock products

3) Watch points

• Additional quarantine measures announced by China's Ministry of Agriculture and local governments, and whether affected areas expand
• Trends in import restriction measures on Chinese poultry products by major trading partners including Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea
• Understanding infection scale and control situation through WHO's follow-up updates