Avian influenza A(H5N1) - update 16: Situation in Viet Nam

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1. Summary

A WHO update has been reported on the avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak situation in Vietnam in February 2004. Currently classified as 'low' grade, avian influenza is a disease that can potentially impact the poultry industry and related supply chains.

2. Supply-chain impact

• Poultry industry — Potential direct impact on chicken, duck and other poultry farming and exports within Vietnam
• Feed supply chain — Expected changes in related trade patterns due to decreased demand for poultry feed grains (corn, soybean meal)
• Food processing industry — Need for supply chain restructuring across the Asian region if imports of Vietnamese poultry products are restricted
• Biosecurity — Increased quarantine costs and intensified transportation constraints across the Southeast Asian livestock industry

3. Watch points

• Spread scope — Whether additional regional outbreaks occur within Vietnam and trends in strengthened quarantine measures by neighboring Southeast Asian countries
• Trade sanctions — Possibility of major poultry-importing countries implementing import bans on Vietnamese products and extending the duration of such measures