Green flood alert in Brazil

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

Summary

Large-scale flooding in Brazil lasting from March 2 to April 16, 2026, resulted in 96 deaths and 15,647 displaced persons. This medium-risk flooding persisted for over a month and a half, causing significant impact on agricultural and mineral production regions within Brazil.

Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural supply disruptions: As the world's largest soybean and corn exporter, crop losses and harvest delays in flood-affected areas could pressure global grain prices
• Iron ore production shutdown risk: If Brazil's southeastern regions were affected, mining and transportation infrastructure of major iron ore producers like Vale could be impacted
• Meat processing facility damage: Concerns over global meat supply chain disruption due to flooding of livestock farming and slaughterhouse facilities in Brazil, the world's largest meat exporter
• Inland transport network paralysis: Delays in raw material and finished goods transportation due to flooded roads and railways, particularly potential disconnection between industrial centers like São Paulo and ports

Watch points

• São Paulo-Santos port transport recovery: Timeline for normalization of inland transport routes to Santos port, Brazil's largest export port, and trends in cargo backlogs
• Damage assessment of major agricultural regions: Official announcements on crop loss scale and next harvest outlook in key agricultural regions like Mato Grosso and Paraná