Drought is on going in Austria, Belarus, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Sweden, Slovakia, Ukraine

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary As of February 11, 2026, drought conditions persist across 13 countries in Eastern and Northern Europe, though the current risk level is managed at medium (Green) level. Major agricultural producing countries including Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia are affected, raising concerns about water scarcity across this extensive region.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Grain production regions: Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Ukraine are major European grain producers, and sustained drought could have medium to long-term impacts on wheat, corn, barley and other grain supplies
• Baltic Sea coastal logistics: Potential impacts on port operations in Germany, Denmark, Poland, and the Baltic states, with particular concerns about inland waterway transport restrictions during periods of insufficient rainfall
• Energy supply chain: Monitoring needed for potential indirect impacts on Russia's hydroelectric and nuclear power plant cooling water supplies, and Germany's Rhine River logistics
• Agriculture-related chemicals: Possible supply chain demand adjustments in fertilizers and pesticides due to changing demand patterns

3) Watch points

• Track precipitation recovery over the next 2-3 months and potential drought level escalation (Orange/Red)
• Monitor water level changes in major inland waterways such as Germany's Rhine River and Poland's Vistula River, and any cargo transport restrictions
• Review agricultural production plan adjustments for the 2026 spring planting season (March-May) in the affected regions and grain futures price trends