Drought is on going in Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan

Supply-chain Risk Briefing: Central Asia Drought Situation

1) Summary Ongoing drought in Afghanistan, Iran, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan continues to be classified at moderate level (Green alert level). The widespread drought across Central Asia may impact agricultural production and energy supply.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Agricultural production disruption: Concerns over reduced yields due to water shortages in major production areas for wheat, cotton, and dried fruits
• Energy supply instability: Potential for reduced hydroelectric capacity in Iran and Turkmenistan and indirect impact on natural gas production facility operations
• Logistics transport constraints: Drought-induced limitations on inland waterway use and increased dependence on overland transport networks
• Regional economic ripple effects: Economic instability in agriculture-dependent Afghanistan and Tajikistan spreading to regional trade

3) Watch points

• Precipitation and reservoir level changes: Need to track weather conditions and degree of water resource recovery over the next 2-3 months
• Crop condition reports: Monitor agricultural production plans and actual cultivated area changes during spring planting season (March-April)
• Energy supply and demand situation: Observe changes in Iran's power export capacity and Turkmenistan's gas production levels