[Israel] Use conventional military force — ISRAELI → BEIRUT

Supply-chain Risk Briefing

1) Summary An incident involving Israel's use of military force against Beirut (Lebanon) occurred on April 14. With 16 media outlets reporting and a tension index of -10, this indicates a critical geopolitical conflict situation. Security instability in the Middle East region is deepening, with widespread ripple effects expected on global supply chains.

2) Supply-chain impact

• Energy supply risk - Potential disruptions to crude oil and natural gas supplies due to security concerns over production and transportation facilities in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries
• Maritime shipping routes - Increased logistics costs between Europe and Asia due to vessel delays and rising insurance premiums on Eastern Mediterranean routes
• Air transport networks - Disruptions to cargo and passenger transport via Middle East if airports in Lebanon and neighboring countries suspend operations
• Regional manufacturing - Supply delays for related components and finished products due to shutdowns of manufacturing facilities in Lebanon's textile, food processing, and other sectors
• Financial and insurance markets - Rising trade finance procurement costs and surging cargo insurance premiums due to declining creditworthiness in the Middle East region

3) Watch points

• Operational status of Lebanon's major ports (Port of Beirut) and airports, and whether neighboring countries close borders
• Level of military involvement by major regional powers such as Iran and Syria, and scope of conflict expansion
• Crude oil futures price volatility and production adjustment moves by Middle Eastern oil-producing countries