[Jerusalem, Israel (general), Israel] Expel/deport — DJIBOUTI → ISRAEL

Summary

On April 14, 2025, an expulsion/deportation incident related to Djibouti occurred in Jerusalem, Israel, with 4 media outlets reporting and recording a tension index of -5. Diplomatic tensions in the Middle East region are assessed to be escalating.

Supply-chain impact

• Increased instability of Red Sea maritime transport routes - Djibouti is a key port nation along the Red Sea coast, and Middle East tensions could indirectly impact maritime logistics
• Rising energy supply chain risks in the Middle East region - Israel-centered diplomatic conflicts pose potential risk factors for regional crude oil and natural gas transportation
• Concerns over weakened trade connectivity between Africa and the Middle East - Potential impact on logistics routes for landlocked countries like Ethiopia through Djibouti's port

Watch points

• Track whether there are shipping delays or increased use of alternative routes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden waters
• Monitor the normalcy of Djibouti port operations and subsequent changes in diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries