Zambia

Current status

Zambia faces elevated security and political risks over the past 30 days, with 13 events including 4 critical incidents involving military force and physical attacks across key regions. Violence has spread from the copper-rich Copperbelt province to Eastern and Central provinces, while diplomatic tensions have emerged in the northern Luapula region. The concentration of high-severity events (100% critical or high) signals deteriorating stability in a country already challenged by weak governance indicators.

Supply chain impact

• Copper and cobalt mining operations face direct disruption risk, particularly in Copperbelt province where military force was deployed, threatening supply to automotive and electronics manufacturers dependent on Zambian minerals.
• Sulphuric acid exports to Democratic Republic of Congo have been partially restored after recent bans, but smelter shutdowns continue to constrain both copper production and acid availability for regional mining operations.
• Transportation corridors linking landlocked Zambia to ports may experience delays as security concerns spread beyond mining regions to central transit routes through Lusaka.
• Gold mining operations in affected Eastern and Central provinces face operational uncertainty amid the uptick in unconventional violence and military deployments.
• Regional buyers in the DRC mining sector remain exposed to supply chain volatility despite the easing of sulphuric acid export restrictions.

Watch points

• Monitor copper production data from major Copperbelt mines and any expansion of military operations that could force temporary shutdowns or evacuation of international personnel.
• Track diplomatic developments in Luapula province and potential spillover effects on cross-border trade routes with DRC and Tanzania.
• Watch for further restrictions on chemical exports if security conditions deteriorate, as sulphuric acid availability directly impacts regional copper processing capacity.