Uganda

Current status

Uganda faces severe supply chain disruption risks with 55 events recorded in the past 30 days, including 22 critical and 30 high-severity incidents concentrated in economic and political instability. Military force deployment in the capital Kampala and surrounding regions signals escalating internal tensions, while cross-border security concerns with DRC and ongoing regional health threats compound operational challenges. The concentration of critical events around key commercial centers threatens Uganda's position as a regional logistics hub.

Supply chain impact

• Coffee exporters face immediate disruption risk as military operations concentrate in Kampala, Uganda's primary commercial and logistics center, potentially affecting the 80% of global coffee supply chain dependent on East African routing.
• Gold mining operations in northern regions like Gulu experience direct operational threats from conventional military force deployment, impacting precious metals supply chains serving global jewelry and electronics manufacturers.
• Lake Victoria fishing industry suffers from cross-border violence and conflicting regulations affecting Kenyan fishers, disrupting regional protein supply chains and affecting food security for East African markets.
• Regional transport corridors through Uganda connecting landlocked countries like South Sudan and eastern DRC face heightened security risks, potentially forcing costly route diversions for importers.
• Ebola outbreak concerns along the DRC border create potential quarantine and trade restriction scenarios that could isolate Uganda from regional supply networks.

Watch points

• Monitor escalation of military operations beyond Kampala to other commercial centers like Entebbe International Airport, which would severely impact air cargo operations for time-sensitive commodities.
• Track development of Ebola outbreak containment measures that could trigger border closures with DRC, disrupting critical mineral supply chains from eastern Congo.
• Watch for implementation of emergency trade restrictions or curfews that could halt coffee harvesting season and disrupt established export schedules to European and North American buyers.