Taiwan
Taiwan (TW)CRITICALEast Asia · pop. 23,570,000 · GDP 790,728 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Taiwan faces an unprecedented security crisis with 94 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including conventional military attacks, bombings, and shows of force across multiple regions. The situation has deteriorated sharply amid shifting U.S. policy signals and heightened cross-strait tensions, with 31 critical-level incidents representing the most severe threat environment in recent memory. Key flashpoints include Taipei, Penghu, and Jinmen counties, while diplomatic uncertainty around U.S. defense commitments has amplified regional instability.
Supply chain impact
- Global semiconductor production faces severe disruption risk, as Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's chips and houses critical foundries like TSMC that supply Apple, NVIDIA, and major automotive manufacturers.
- Electronics supply chains serving consumer goods, automotive, and industrial sectors are highly vulnerable, with potential shortages affecting everything from smartphones to electric vehicle components and industrial automation systems.
- Air and sea freight routes through the Taiwan Strait—a critical shipping lane connecting Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia and beyond—face operational constraints and elevated insurance costs.
- Technology companies with Taiwan-based manufacturing partners or suppliers should prepare for potential production halts, with particular exposure in advanced processor manufacturing that cannot be quickly relocated.
- Regional ports in Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea may experience cargo rerouting and congestion as Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung) face operational uncertainties.
Watch points
- Monitor U.S. policy clarifications on Taiwan defense commitments, particularly following Trump administration statements about not traveling "miles to fight Taiwan's war," which could signal reduced deterrence.
- Track escalation indicators including additional military incidents, airspace violations, or economic sanctions that could trigger broader supply chain shutdowns or port closures.
- Watch for semiconductor industry contingency announcements from major foundries and their key customers regarding production continuity and alternative sourcing strategies.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Taiwan2026-05-31
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Taiwan2026-05-30
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Taiwan2026-05-30
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Taiwan (general), Taiwan2026-05-27
- HIGHDemonstration/rally in Taiwan2026-05-27
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-26
- CRITICALShow of force in Taiwan2026-05-24
- HIGHArrest/detain in Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan2026-05-23
- CRITICALTank/artillery attack in Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan2026-05-22
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Taiwan (general), Taiwan2026-05-21
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-21
- HIGHCut aid in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-21
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-21
- CRITICALShow of force in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-20
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Taiwan2026-05-20
- CRITICALImpose sanctions in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-20
- HIGHArrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-20
- HIGHArrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwan2026-05-19
Related News (30)
- Nvidia Unveils ai pc Chip For Laptops And Desktopspakistantoday.com.pk·2026-06-01
Economic blockade reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIPEI, COMPANY. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 10 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-31
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWANESE, BRITAIN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Mandaue City Reports 12 Drop in Firessunstar.com.ph·2026-05-30
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan. Actors: PHILIPPINE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Wevr The Blu Expedition Taiwanblooloop.com·2026-05-27
Demonstration/rally reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 10 sources.
- Nvidias Taiwan Problem The ai Boom is Now Dependent on One Islandsify.com·2026-05-27
Use conventional military force reported in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Taiwan Tracks Second Chinese Combat Patrol in a Week Sends Ships And Jets to Monitorinternazionale.it·2026-05-26
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, CHINESE. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Trump Taiwan China Ukraine Arms Sales bindependent.co.uk·2026-05-24
Show of force reported in Taiwan. Actors: MILITARY, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Taoyuan Xian, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-23
Arrest/detain reported in Fujian, Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan. Actors: FUJIAN, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 4 sources.
- Taiwan Woman Decapitated Illegal Freight Elevator Liftasiaone.com·2026-05-22
Military force (coercive) reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAINAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- China Taiwan Update May 22aei.org·2026-05-22
Tank/artillery attack reported in Fujian, Taoyuan Xian, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Use conventional military force in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-21
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- India Sees Relations With China in a Bilateral Context Beijing Has Never Seen it That Waythehindu.com·2026-05-21
Use conventional military force reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, CHINA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Taiwanese Leader Lai Ill be Happy to Talk to Trumpmanilatimes.net·2026-05-21
Cut aid reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: WASHINGTON, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5.6 · 3 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-20
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAICHUNG, PRISON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Taiwans President Says Future Will Not be Decided by External Forcesgrenadachronicle.com·2026-05-20
Show of force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: PRESIDENT, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 5 sources.
- Military force (coercive) in Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-20
Military force (coercive) reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Conservative mp Michael Chong Meets With Taiwan President as China Dials up Pressurensnews.com·2026-05-20
Impose sanctions reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: FRANCE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 20 sources.
- Cut aid in Taiwan (general), Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-19
Cut aid reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: CHINA, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5.6 · 4 sources.
- Taiwan And uk Strengthen ai And Innovation Ties at Etcc 32nd Annual Conferencemanilatimes.net·2026-05-19
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 5 sources.
- Taiwan Defies Trump Reasserts Sovereigntydailyexpress.com.my·2026-05-17
Demonstration/rally reported in Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Hall, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 10 sources.
- Trump Says us Wont Travel Miles to Fight Taiwans War For Independenceaninews.in·2026-05-16
Use conventional military force reported in Republic Of China, Taiwan (general), Taiwan. Actors: CHINA, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Bipartisan Senate Group Asks President Trump Administration State Secretary Rubio to Reaffirm Support For Taiwan Taipei China Beijing xi Jinpingklewtv.com·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: SENATOR, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 16 sources.
- Trumps Five Tap Secret Code Handshake Bullfrog Smiledailymail.com·2026-05-14
Seize property/assets reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -9.2 · 3 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwannews.ltn.com.tw·2026-05-13
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAIPEI, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Arrest/detain in T'ai-pei, Taiwantaipeitimes.com·2026-05-13
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: TAICHUNG, PROSECUTOR. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Taiwan Stages Live Fire Drill Mainland Facing Island Trump Heads Beijingscmp.com·2026-05-13
Assault reported in Quemoy, Jinmen Xian, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, LIBERATION ARMY. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 6 sources.
- Trade Taiwan Iran Cast Shadows Trumps China Summit xi Rcnanbcnews.com·2026-05-13
Show of force reported in Taiwan. Actors: TAIWANESE, TAICHUNG. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 8 sources.
- Taiwan Independence Forces And Japans Right Wing Agenda Threaten Regional Stabilityweeklyblitz.net·2026-05-12
Demonstration/rally reported in Chianan, T'ai-chung, Taiwan. Actors: TAIWAN, JAPANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 8 sources.
- Trump to Discuss Taiwan Arms Sales Jailed hk Tycoon Jimmy Lai With xithestar.com.my·2026-05-12
Arrest/detain reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: BEIJING, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 6 sources.
- in War With Iran China Sees Familiar Pattern of u s Mistakeslatimes.com·2026-05-12
Use conventional military force reported in Taipei, T'ai-pei, Taiwan. Actors: CHINESE, TAIWAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.