Trinidad and Tobago

Current status

Trinidad and Tobago faces acute supply chain disruption risks following an unprecedented escalation in violence over the last 30 days. The country experienced 12 critical-to-high severity events, including reports of conventional military force deployment and chemical weapons incidents across multiple locations. This represents a dramatic deterioration in the security environment for a key Caribbean energy supplier.

Supply chain impact

• Natural gas and crude oil exports from Trinidad and Tobago face severe operational constraints, directly affecting LNG shipments to the United States, Europe, and regional Caribbean markets that depend on Trinidadian energy supplies.
• Petrochemical facilities in the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, a major chemicals export hub, are vulnerable to production shutdowns given the security environment and reported military operations in Saint Andrew and Caroni regions.
• Maritime logistics through Port of Spain and Point Lisas ports could experience significant delays or temporary closures, disrupting not only energy exports but also import flows of manufactured goods to Trinidad and Tobago's 1.5 million population.
• Regional supply chains for ammonia, methanol, and other chemical derivatives face potential shortages, particularly affecting fertilizer and plastics manufacturing in North and South America.
• Energy-intensive industries relying on Trinidad and Tobago's competitively-priced natural gas feedstock may need to activate alternative sourcing strategies immediately.

Watch points

• Monitor port operations and LNG terminal status at Atlantic LNG facility, as any disruption would immediately impact contracted gas deliveries to international buyers.
• Track whether violence spreads to the Point Lisas Industrial Estate, which houses major petrochemical operations including Methanex and Caribbean Nitrogen Company facilities.
• Watch for potential evacuation of international personnel from energy sector operations, which could trigger force majeure declarations on export contracts.