Chad

Current status

Chad faces severe security deterioration with 62 critical and high-severity events over the last 30 days, dominated by tank and artillery attacks plus conventional military operations. The country's petroleum and agricultural exports are under acute pressure from Boko Haram militant activity that killed 23 soldiers and prompted national mourning, while political instability deepened with 8 opposition leaders jailed for insurrection.

Supply chain impact

• Petroleum sector disruptions threaten crude oil exports, particularly affecting downstream refineries in Central and West African markets that rely on Chad's landlocked production via pipeline infrastructure through Cameroon.
• Agricultural commodity flows face severe constraints as military operations concentrate in rural areas, disrupting cotton harvests and livestock movements critical to regional food security across the Sahel corridor.
• Cross-border trade routes through N'Djamena are experiencing heightened delays and security screening, impacting goods movement between Nigeria, Cameroon, and Sudan particularly for mining equipment and agricultural inputs.
• Nigerian fishing operations in Lake Chad region report casualties, indicating broader deterioration in cross-border economic activity affecting protein supply chains across the Chad Basin.
• Mining sector operations face operational suspensions as security forces redirect resources to counter-insurgency, delaying graphite and other mineral extraction projects tied to global battery supply chains.

Watch points

• Monitor pipeline infrastructure security along the Chad-Cameroon corridor, as attacks could halt petroleum exports entirely and trigger force majeure declarations by international oil operators.
• Track humanitarian corridor access and UN operations status, as further deterioration could prompt international intervention affecting all commercial logistics in the region.
• Watch for expansion of military operations beyond current conflict zones, particularly near mining concessions and agricultural areas that support export commodities.