Saudi Arabia

Current status

Saudi Arabia faces acute security deterioration with 75 critical and high-severity events over the past 30 days, including tank/artillery attacks near Riyadh and unconventional violence in Makkah. The escalation appears linked to covert regional conflict with Iran, with military operations targeting key population and economic centers. This represents the most severe threat environment for Saudi operations in recent years.

Supply chain impact

• Global crude oil markets face immediate supply disruption risk from attacks near Riyadh and potential targeting of energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia supplying approximately 10% of global crude oil exports.
• Petrochemical and plastics supply chains serving Asia-Pacific and European markets are vulnerable to production shutdowns at major facilities in the Eastern Province and around Riyadh.
• Holy city of Makkah incidents threaten religious tourism logistics and could trigger broader regional instability affecting Red Sea shipping routes to Suez Canal.
• Mining operations for phosphates and other industrial minerals face operational suspensions, impacting global fertilizer and chemical feedstock availability.
• Regional aviation hubs in Riyadh and Jeddah may experience capacity restrictions, disrupting air cargo flows between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Watch points

• Monitor oil production facility status and any attacks on Aramco infrastructure, particularly around Ras Tanura and Jubail industrial complexes over the next two weeks.
• Track escalation patterns with Iran and potential expansion to other Gulf states, which could trigger broader regional supply chain disruptions.
• Watch for any restrictions on commercial shipping through Red Sea approaches to Suez Canal if regional military activities intensify.