Mozambique

Current status

Mozambique faces elevated supply chain risks driven by critical security incidents and environmental disruptions over the past 30 days. Military operations in Nampula province and coercive actions in the capital Maputo, combined with extensive wildfire activity reaching 384 detections on May 13, have created a volatile operating environment. The 27 recorded events include 5 critical and 9 high-severity incidents, signaling acute instability in this key East African mining and energy hub.

Supply chain impact

• Coal and aluminum exports face immediate disruption from military operations in Nampula, a key mining region that connects to critical rail and port infrastructure serving Asian markets, particularly China and India.
• Natural gas operations along the northern coast remain vulnerable to security incidents, threatening LNG supplies to European buyers who have increased reliance on Mozambican gas following reduced Russian imports.
• Wildfire clusters with nearly 400 daily detections pose direct threats to mining transportation corridors and agricultural supply chains, potentially disrupting food commodity exports to regional African markets.
• Port operations in Maputo, the country's largest commercial gateway handling coal and aluminum shipments, face operational constraints from ongoing coercive activities in the capital region.
• IMF program negotiations suggest underlying economic stress that could affect infrastructure investment and operational stability across extractive industries.

Watch points

• Monitor military activity escalation in Nampula province, as this region contains critical coal mining assets and rail links that could face extended shutdowns if security deteriorates further.
• Track wildfire progression and seasonal weather patterns, as the current detection levels indicate potential for infrastructure damage affecting mining and port operations through the dry season.
• Watch for IMF program developments in June, as funding delays or conditionality disputes could impact government capacity to maintain security and infrastructure supporting export operations.