Lebanon
Lebanon (LB)CRITICALMiddle East · pop. 5,490,000 · GDP 18,097 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Lebanon faces an acute escalation in military conflict with 335 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including conventional military operations, economic blockades, and chemical weapons incidents. The situation has deteriorated sharply from already fragile baseline conditions, with active combat operations concentrated in southern Lebanon and Mount Lebanon regions. This represents a fundamental shift from Lebanon's chronic economic and governance challenges to active warfare affecting core infrastructure and trade routes.
Supply chain impact
- Jewelry and precious metals supply chains face immediate disruption as Lebanon's key export industry operates under wartime conditions, affecting European and Gulf buyers who source Lebanese crafted jewelry and gemstone processing services.
- Regional logistics hubs serving Middle East distribution networks are compromised, with Beirut port operations likely constrained by security protocols and potential infrastructure damage from ongoing military actions.
- Banking and financial services supporting regional trade finance are severely impacted, disrupting letters of credit and payment processing for importers across the Levant corridor.
- Machinery imports essential for Lebanon's industrial base face delays or cancellation due to economic blockade measures and security restrictions on commercial shipping.
- Land transport routes connecting Syria, Lebanon, and regional markets are operating under heightened risk, forcing cargo rerouting through alternative corridors with increased costs and transit times.
Watch points
- Monitor Beirut port operational status and any formal closure announcements that would force regional cargo rerouting through Cyprus, Turkey, or Israeli ports.
- Track escalation indicators including any expansion of military operations beyond current southern and central Lebanon zones, particularly toward northern industrial areas and the Syrian border.
- Watch for banking sector operational disruptions that could freeze trade finance for regional importers and affect broader Middle East commercial transactions.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Goods produced with forced / child labor (US DoL 2024)
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-02
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-02
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-02
- CRITICALBomb attack in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALAssault in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALAir bombardment in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALAssault in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALAssassination in Lebanon2026-06-01
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-05-31
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Lebanon2026-05-31
- CRITICALBomb attack in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-05-31
- HIGHMilitary force (coercive) in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-05-31
- CRITICALMass violence in Lebanon2026-05-30
- CRITICALBomb attack in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-05-30
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Beyrouth, Lebanon2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Mont-Liban, Lebanon2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Mont-Liban, Lebanon2026-05-29
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Nabatî, Lebanon2026-05-29
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Mont-Liban, Lebanon2026-05-29
Related News (23)
- us Iran Talks Reportedly Resume as Trump Says Deal Could be Reached Within a Weekthenews.com.pk·2026-06-02
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, BEIRUT. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Lebanon Announces Partial Ceasefire Between Israel Hezbollah But Attacks Continueeconomictimes.indiatimes.com·2026-06-02
Economic blockade reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Israel Says us Backs Strikes if Hezbollah Attacks Despite Trump Backed Ceasefire Push Articlemoneycontrol.com·2026-06-02
Use conventional military force reported in Beaufort Castle, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAELI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Netanyahu Orders Beirut Strikes Lebanonyahoo.com·2026-06-01
Assault reported in Kafr Kila, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, BEIRUT. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 4 sources.
- Consequences Iran Issues New Threats Claiming Ceasefire Includes Israeli Strikes on Hezbollahtheyeshivaworld.com·2026-06-01
Bomb attack reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Assassination in Lebanonynetnews.com·2026-06-01
Assassination reported in Lebanon. Actors: LEBANESE, HASSAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Lebanonynetnews.com·2026-06-01
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Lack of Trust Israels Attacks in Lebanon Iran on What is Causing Delay in Peace Dealhindustantimes.com·2026-06-01
Assault reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 7 sources.
- Air bombardment in Beyrouth, Lebanonynetnews.com·2026-06-01
Air bombardment reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Israel Captures Key Lebanon Site Crossing Litani River Rcnanbcnews.com·2026-05-31
Military force (coercive) reported in Beaufort Castle, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Artc Israel Crosses Litani River Reaches Beaufort Ridge For First Time in 26 Years Live Blogi24news.tv·2026-05-31
Bomb attack reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Ceasefire Day 53 Hegseth Trump to be Patient Pursuing Dealtheamericanconservative.com·2026-05-31
Use conventional military force reported in Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAELI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 7 sources.
- Deal or Deal With War us Warns Iran as Lebanon Front Heats upsiasat.com·2026-05-30
Bomb attack reported in Beaufort Castle, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Chas Freeman Hezbollah Strikes Israel Hard Israel Now Prepares For War With Egypt Turkeygreanvillepost.com·2026-05-30
Mass violence reported in Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Lebanon Prison Overcrowdingupi.com·2026-05-29
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: MILITARY, SIDON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Use conventional military force in Mont-Liban, Lebanonynetnews.com·2026-05-29
Use conventional military force reported in Jbeil, Mont-Liban, Lebanon. Actors: COMMANDER, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Economic blockade in Nabatî, Lebanonspacewar.com·2026-05-29
Economic blockade reported in Marjayoun, Nabatî, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAELI, LEBANESE. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 8 sources.
- Israel Strikes Lebanon to Target Hezbollahabc.net.au·2026-05-29
Use conventional military force reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: ISRAEL, LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- Israel Declares New Swathe of Lebanon a Combat Zone Warns Residents to Leavestraitstimes.com·2026-05-28
Use conventional military force reported in Bekaa, Béa, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, MAYOR. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Idf Strikes Hezbollah Targets in Bekaa Valley And Southern Lebanon Photoen.apa.az·2026-05-27
Use conventional military force reported in Bekaa Valley, Béa, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Israel Kill Hamas Chief Gaza And 31 in Lebanon Maythejournal.ie·2026-05-27
Use conventional military force reported in Habbush, Nabatî, Lebanon. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Israeli Strike on Village in Eastern Lebanon Kills 12 as Israel Calls up More Troops Theredailyexcelsior.com·2026-05-26
Tank/artillery attack reported in Beirut, Beyrouth, Lebanon. Actors: BEIRUT, ISRAELI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Israel Escalates Strikes in Lebanon as Netanyahu Vows to Crush Hezbollahtheguardian.com·2026-05-26
Use conventional military force reported in Bekaa, Béa, Lebanon. Actors: LEBANON, ISRAELI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.