Comoros

Current status

Comoros faces elevated political risk following deadly protests over fuel price hikes in mid-May, resulting in government arrests and the suspension of planned price increases. The small island nation recorded 2 high-severity events in the past 30 days, both related to civil unrest and government crackdowns. Underlying governance vulnerabilities remain significant with corruption and rule of law scores below the 25th percentile globally.

Supply chain impact

• Vanilla and ylang-ylang buyers face potential supply disruptions as political instability threatens agricultural operations in one of the world's key producers of these specialty aromatics.
• Indian Ocean shipping routes serving Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles may experience minor delays if unrest spreads or affects port operations at Moroni, though Comoros handles minimal regional cargo volume.
• Essential goods imports including fuel and food staples face price volatility and potential shortages as the government struggles with subsidy policies amid fiscal constraints.
• Clove exporters to Middle Eastern and Asian markets should monitor for production delays, as agricultural exports require stable rural transportation networks that could be disrupted by continued protests.

Watch points

• Monitor for resumption of fuel subsidy cuts or additional austerity measures that could trigger renewed protests and supply chain disruptions within 2-4 weeks.
• Track regional spillover effects to neighboring Mayotte (France) and Madagascar, particularly if maritime security concerns emerge in the Mozambique Channel.
• Watch for IMF or international donor pressure regarding fiscal reforms that could precipitate further social unrest affecting export agriculture.