Iraq
Iraq (IQ)CRITICALMiddle East · pop. 45,500,000 · GDP 264,182 M USD
Why this score? · top 3 of 20 events driving the 30-day risk
Major industries
Major exports
30d events
AI Brief
Current status
Iraq faces severe supply chain disruption risks with 85 critical and high-severity events recorded over the past 30 days, including chemical weapons attacks and conventional military operations in Baghdad. The security deterioration represents a sharp escalation from Iraq's already fragile baseline, with governance indicators ranking among the world's lowest. Military actions and terror plot allegations involving Iranian-backed groups signal widening regional conflict spillover into Iraq's core oil infrastructure zones.
Supply chain impact
- Oil and energy supply chains face immediate disruption risks as military operations target Baghdad and surrounding areas where key petroleum infrastructure and government facilities are concentrated.
- Asian refineries dependent on Iraqi crude exports, particularly in China, India, and South Korea, should prepare for potential supply interruptions given the proximity of conflicts to major oil production regions.
- Transportation routes through Iraq connecting Turkey and the broader Middle East face elevated security risks, affecting overland cargo movements and cross-border logistics operations.
- International companies with operations in Baghdad or southern Iraq oil fields may need to implement emergency evacuation procedures given the use of chemical weapons and sustained military activity.
- Regional aviation and shipping insurance premiums are likely increasing for Iraq-related cargo, raising logistics costs for all sectors beyond petroleum.
Watch points
- Monitor daily oil production reports from Iraq's Oil Ministry and any announcements of force majeure declarations from major oil companies operating in southern Iraq fields.
- Track expansion of military operations beyond Baghdad toward Basra province, which would directly threaten Iraq's primary oil export terminals and loading facilities.
- Watch for formal travel advisories or evacuation orders from major economies' embassies in Baghdad, which typically precede broader supply chain partner withdrawals.
Risk by layer
90d risk trend
Structural risk profile
Produced commodities
Dependent chokepoints
Recent events (20)
- CRITICALCurfew/martial law in Baghdad, Iraq2026-05-30
- HIGHDemonstration/rally in Iraq2026-05-28
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Iraq2026-05-24
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Iraq2026-05-24
- CRITICALNuclear alert in Iraq2026-05-23
- HIGHArrest/detain in Baghdad, Iraq2026-05-23
- CRITICALAssassination in Baghdad, Iraq2026-05-23
- CRITICALTroop buildup in Liwa' Irbil, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALTroop buildup in Liwa' Irbil, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Al Basrah, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALChemical weapons used in Baghdad, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Baghdad, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALBomb attack in Dahuk, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Al Basrah, Iraq2026-05-22
- CRITICALEconomic blockade in Iraq2026-05-18
- HIGHArrest/detain in Iraq2026-05-17
- CRITICALReduce relations in Iraq2026-05-17
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Iraq2026-05-16
- CRITICALUse conventional military force in Iraq2026-05-16
Related News (30)
- Blockade Bolster Iranianjuancole.com·2026-05-30
Curfew/martial law reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: BAGHDAD. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 10 sources.
- Demonstration/rally in Iraqcity.udn.com·2026-05-28
Demonstration/rally reported in Iraq. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 8 sources.
- Iran Recounts Historic Battles in Response to Trumps Talk of Agreementaljazeera.com·2026-05-24
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAN, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- we Need to Kill Ivanka Who is Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al Saadi Iraqi Commander Targeted President Trumps Daughter to Avenge The Killing of Qasem Soleimanieconomictimes.indiatimes.com·2026-05-23
Assassination reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, ISLAMIC. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Nuclear alert in Iraqjpost.com·2026-05-23
Nuclear alert reported in Iraq. Actors: THE US, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 8 sources.
- Mohamed Fahmy How Iraq Became Irans Launch Point For Terrorismnationalpost.com·2026-05-22
Bomb attack reported in Barakah, Dahuk, Iraq. Actors: IRAN, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Trade Unions Mass Organisations And Left Historical Necessity Reassessment And Renewallinks.org.au·2026-05-22
Troop buildup reported in Erbil, Liwa' Irbil, Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, KURDISTAN. Tension (Goldstein): -7.2 · 10 sources.
- Iraq War Medic Battled Savemirror.co.uk·2026-05-22
Use conventional military force reported in Shaibah, Al Basrah, Iraq. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 10 sources.
- 5 Things Poppy Wall House Passes Bills Faithstripes.com·2026-05-22
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- Isis Leader Killed in Nigeria During Joint us Operationchristianpost.com·2026-05-18
Economic blockade reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAQI, ISLAMIC. Tension (Goldstein): -9.5 · 3 sources.
- Second Secret Base Report Claims Israel Built Another Covert Military Site in Iraqi Deserttheyeshivaworld.com·2026-05-17
Reduce relations reported in Iraq. Actors: ISRAELI, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -7 · 3 sources.
- How Fears of Iranian Proxy Attacks Outside The Middle East Are Growing After New us Terror Charges Articlemoneycontrol.com·2026-05-17
Arrest/detain reported in Iraq. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Who is The Iraqi Man Charged With Terror Plots From London to New Yorkthenationalnews.com·2026-05-16
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 5 sources.
- New York Charges Iraqi Man Over Alleged Terror Plot Targeting Synagoguethenationalnews.com·2026-05-16
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, MILITARY. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Militia Commander Tied to Iran is Charged With Plotting Attacks in u sseattletimes.com·2026-05-16
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: ARMY, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- us Says Iran Backed Militia Commander Planned Jewish Site Attacksal-monitor.com·2026-05-15
Use conventional military force reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: THE US, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 20 sources.
- Arrest/detain in Baghdad, Iraqarabnews.com·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: TURKIYE, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 3 sources.
- Iraq Striving Recover Plundered Antiquitieseturbonews.com·2026-05-15
Reduce diplomatic ties reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, AMERICAN. Tension (Goldstein): -4 · 5 sources.
- Iraq Forms New Government With Only 14 of 23 Ministerslongwarjournal.org·2026-05-15
Use conventional military force reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: UNITED STATES, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Iraqi National With Suspected Ties to Hezbollah Wanted to Bomb ny Synagogue in Retaliation For Iran War Docsnypost.com·2026-05-15
Arrest/detain reported in Iraq. Actors: EUROPE, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 10 sources.
- Atonement Review Boyd Holbrook Hiam Abbass Kenneth Branaghhollywoodreporter.com·2026-05-15
Chemical weapons used reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, JORDAN. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 4 sources.
- Why Trump Decided to Back Iraqs Prime Minister Designate Ali al Zaidimiddleeastmonitor.com·2026-05-14
Military force (coercive) reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: BANK, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 7 sources.
- Senoia to Mark Americas 250th Anniversary With Memorial Day Remembrance Ceremonythecitizen.com·2026-05-13
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: CHINOOK, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- Saudi Warplanes Struck Militias in Iraq During War Sources Say Ce7f5bdcdd80f724marketscreener.com·2026-05-13
Bomb attack reported in Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq. Actors: IRAQI, KUWAITI. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 3 sources.
- Saudi Arabia Launched Covert Attacks on Iran as Regional War Widened Sources Ce7f5bded08bf62dmarketscreener.com·2026-05-12
Demonstration/rally reported in Iraq. Actors: SAUDI ARABIA, IRAQI. Tension (Goldstein): -6.5 · 8 sources.
- Iraqi Authorities Make Late Admission Makeshift Israeli Base Desertenglish.aawsat.com·2026-05-12
Use conventional military force reported in Najaf, An Najaf, Iraq. Actors: IRAQI, FIGHTER. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 8 sources.
- a Secret Israeli Base in Iraq What we Knowaljazeera.com·2026-05-12
Arrest/detain reported in Najaf, An Najaf, Iraq. Actors: IRAN, IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -5 · 8 sources.
- Memorial 5k in Ballinger to Honor Fallen Soldier William Justin Bylerkrunam.com·2026-05-11
Use conventional military force reported in Iraq. Actors: IRAQ. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.
- Two Isis Women Face Slavery Charges Amid Yazidi Allegationsabc.net.au·2026-05-08
Unconventional violence reported in Sarab, As Sulaymaniyah, Iraq. Tension (Goldstein): -9 · 8 sources.
- Iraq Treasury01globalsecurity.org·2026-05-08
Use conventional military force reported in Sayyid, Sala? ad Din, Iraq. Actors: IRAQ, SYRIA. Tension (Goldstein): -10 · 6 sources.