Gambia

Current status

Gambia faces severe political instability with 38 events recorded in the last 30 days, including 16 critical incidents concentrated around military force deployment and an assassination in the capital Banjul. The concentration of high-severity events (25 of 38 rated critical or high) signals acute governance breakdown in this West African nation of 2.8 million people. Already weak regulatory quality (36/100) and government effectiveness (37/100) appear to be deteriorating rapidly.

Supply chain impact

• Agricultural exports including peanuts and cashews face immediate disruption as military operations center on Banjul, the primary export hub for Gambia's agricultural commodities.
• European buyers of West African groundnuts and cashew nuts should prepare for supply shortfalls, as Gambia typically contributes to regional agricultural export volumes through Senegalese and Guinean trade corridors.
• Tourism revenue collapse will strain foreign currency availability, potentially affecting import capacity for manufactured goods and fuel that transit through Banjul port.
• Regional food security networks may experience stress as Gambia's agricultural output becomes unreliable, affecting neighboring Senegal and Mali which rely on cross-border trade.
• Fishing industry exports face operational constraints with port security compromised, impacting European seafood importers sourcing from West African waters.

Watch points

• Monitor Banjul port operations and road access to Senegal border crossings, as agricultural export season timing could amplify supply disruptions if instability persists into June-July harvest periods.
• Track regional spillover effects into Senegal's Casamance region, which could disrupt the broader West African peanut and cashew export corridor serving European markets.
• Watch for potential refugee flows affecting cross-border trade logistics and warehouse capacity in neighboring countries handling diverted Gambian agricultural exports.