Ethiopia

Current status

Ethiopia faces severe supply chain disruption risks as military conflict escalates across multiple regions, with 41 events recorded in the last 30 days including 12 critical and 16 high-severity incidents. Active warfare in Tigray and Amhara regions, combined with reports of chemical weapons use and cross-border drone attacks involving Sudan, has created a highly unstable operating environment. The economic blockade in Gambela and widespread wildfires compound transportation and logistics challenges throughout the country.

Supply chain impact

• Coffee supply chains face immediate disruption as Ethiopia supplies approximately 4% of global coffee production, with northern growing regions in Tigray and Amhara directly affected by military operations and artillery attacks.
• Flower export operations to European markets are at risk, particularly given Ethiopia's position as Africa's second-largest flower exporter, with air cargo routes potentially compromised by regional instability and airport security concerns.
• Textile manufacturing for international brands faces production delays and facility closures, as conflict zones overlap with key industrial areas serving European and North American apparel supply chains.
• Regional trade corridors connecting landlocked South Sudan and Central African markets through Ethiopia are increasingly unreliable due to military blockades and cross-border tensions.
• Gold mining operations and export logistics are severely constrained, affecting precious metals supply chains for jewelry manufacturers and technology companies globally.

Watch points

• Monitor escalation of chemical weapons allegations and potential international sanctions that could restrict trade and financial transactions with Ethiopian entities.
• Track wildfire progression and seasonal weather patterns that may further disrupt agricultural production and transportation infrastructure beyond conflict zones.
• Watch for closure or restricted access to Addis Ababa Bole International Airport, which serves as the primary cargo hub for Ethiopian exports to global markets.