Cameroon

Current status

Cameroon faces elevated supply chain risks driven by escalating military operations and civil unrest across multiple regions. The past 30 days recorded 30 security incidents with a concerning concentration of 7 critical and 11 high-severity events, primarily involving conventional military force deployment and physical attacks. Political instability has intensified particularly in the Nord-Ouest region and Centre province, creating operational disruptions for key export industries.

Supply chain impact

• Crude oil exports face potential disruptions as military operations concentrate in central regions where petroleum infrastructure is located, affecting buyers in Europe and Asia who depend on Cameroon's light crude supplies.
• Cocoa supply chains serving European chocolate manufacturers experience heightened risk during the harvest season, with demonstrations and security operations potentially disrupting farmer-to-port logistics along critical transport corridors.
• Timber exports to international markets encounter operational challenges as forestry operations in affected regions may face access restrictions due to ongoing security measures and military deployments.
• Port of Douala operations, Cameroon's primary export gateway, remain vulnerable to spillover effects from regional instability, potentially creating bottlenecks for agricultural and petroleum product shipments.
• Regional trade flows with Chad and Central African Republic face additional strain as cross-border security concerns compound existing logistical challenges in the broader Central Africa corridor.

Watch points

• Monitor military deployment patterns in Nord-Ouest and Centre regions for potential expansion that could affect major transport routes connecting production areas to Port of Douala.
• Track cocoa harvest season disruptions through May-June as continued civil unrest could impact farmer participation and transportation of crops to collection centers.
• Observe government stability indicators and potential policy changes affecting foreign investment in petroleum and agricultural sectors, particularly following recent arrest and detention activities.