Côte d'Ivoire

Current status

Côte d'Ivoire faces elevated security and political risks following a concentrated burst of instability in the Lagunes region over the past 30 days. Five events occurred, including one critical military action and four high-severity arrests, all concentrated in economic and political layers. This represents a notable uptick in domestic tensions for the world's largest cocoa producer, which already operates with moderate governance weaknesses across stability, rule of law, and political voice indicators.

Supply chain impact

• Cocoa supply chains face immediate disruption risks as the Lagunes region encompasses key production areas and the commercial capital Abidjan, with potential impacts on the 40% of global cocoa supply that originates from Côte d'Ivoire.
• European chocolate manufacturers and confectionery companies are most exposed, as they rely heavily on Ivorian cocoa exports through the Port of Abidjan, which handles the majority of the country's agricultural commodities.
• Regional cashew processing and petroleum operations may experience delays or security-related shutdowns if instability spreads beyond Lagunes, affecting both raw cashew exports to Asia and refined petroleum distribution across West Africa.
• Transportation networks serving landlocked neighbors like Mali and Burkina Faso could face bottlenecks if civil unrest affects the critical Abidjan-Ouagadougou corridor.
• Agricultural logistics during the upcoming cocoa harvest season (October-March) may require enhanced security protocols and alternative routing contingencies.

Watch points

• Monitor for expansion of military operations or civil unrest beyond the Lagunes region, particularly toward major cocoa-producing areas in the interior or the Port of San-Pédro.
• Track any disruptions to cocoa cooperative operations or farmer-to-port transportation networks as the main harvest season approaches in Q4 2026.
• Watch for potential curfews or movement restrictions in Abidjan that could affect port operations and commodity export schedules.